Today III Astana Economic Forum started in the capital of Kazakhstan. This year it will be dedicated to the topic “Sustainable Economic Growth in post-Crisis Period”.

Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists Association (EECSA), The Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning, and The Institute of Economic Researches have become organizers of the Forum.

Annual economic forum will bring together above 2000 representatives of political and business circles from more than 50 countries of the world, as well as leading scientists, public and mass media representatives, in order to discuss key issues of global economic development.

Third Astana Economic Forum is aimed to elaborate mechanisms for shaping conditions for long-term sustainable development of world economy and states sector in, based on consolidation of state economic strategy, scientific achievements as well as initiatives of private sector post-recessionary period.

Heads of the biggest international financial institutions, notable economic scholars such as laureates of Nobel Prize in Economics, Finn Kydland, Robert Aumann, Secretary General of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, Secretary General of UN Economic Commission for Europe, Jan Kubis, former Prime Minister of Canada, Jean Chretien, The President of European Investment Bank, Philippe Maystadt, The Vice-president of Asian Development Bank, Z. Xiaoyu, аs well as representatives of moneyed interest and the head of corporations will take part in the work of the Forum.

The President of Republic of Kazakhstan, Mr.Nazarbayev will deliver a welcoming speech to the participants on the opening ceremony of Forum.

During two days high guests will make reports and take part in discussions on actual issues of social-economic security providing in post-crisis period.

More than 4 000 local and foreign journalists obtained accreditation to cover the work of the Forum. Among them there are leading international mass media such as International Herald Tribune, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Euronews, The New York Times Xinhua and many others.

Business Forum of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs with participation of above 300 delegates from different countries will become large event of Astana Economic Forum. The main goal of the Forum is creation of Eurasian Business Congress directed on expansion of mutually beneficial trade-economic connections and investment cooperation on Eurasian space and interaction in development of perspective and high-technology economic spheres.

Conference entitled “Conference of State-private Partnership of Pease Centers” will be held on the first day of Forum. Representatives of State-private Partnership Centers, central and local executive bodies, experts and representatives of non-governmental organizations will take part in discussions.

As final stage of the given discussion organizers see signing of Memorandum on Creation of Unified Source (international center) of State-private Partnership.

International conference dedicated to mechanisms of Islamic financing regulation in the conditions of post-crisis development will be held in the frames of the Forum. The primary goal of the event will become formation of integral system of Islamic financing regulation in Kazakhstan. Above 280 participants, including heads and representatives of financial institutions, small and medium-sized business representatives, primary financial regulators of the RK, state institutions, which carry out control-supervision function of Islamic financial institutions, heads of investment funds in RK will take part in the work of the Conference.

Experts acknowledge that foundation of economic recovery in post-crisis period is resultative and effective-functional national innovation system. Для освещения

In connection with this, Innovative Congress with participation of key figures and companies, which play important role in innovative technologies’ development, will be organized in the frames of Third Astana Economic Forum. Representatives of state structures for innovations and technologies from Finland, Norway, Germany, Korea, France and Israel will share positive experience of national innovative economics’ development and recommendations for innovative policy in Central Asian countries and Kazakhstan.

Exhibition of industrial-innovative projects and scientific works will also take place in the frames of the given event.

In addition to these events, Third Astana Economic Forum will be rich in events of different format. Final documents and events:

— Issuance of an Open Letter to the Heads of G-20 member-states;

— making up results of The Best Research in Economic Sphere competition;

— making up results of The Best Report on Internet Forum competition;

— making up results of The Eurasian Star Youth competition;

On the threshold of Third Astana Economic Forum Internet forum was held. Extraordinary thoughts, ideas, knowledge, suggestions, spoken out during this event, will be thoroughly examined by the World Economic Community. The most interesting suggestions and ideas will be taken as the basis for constructive and interesting discussions in the frameworks of Third Astana Economic Forum and, undoubtedly, will serve the creation of prosperous and sustained World.

According to the results of the competition, the best articles will be published in special edition of EFR: Economics, Finances and Researches magazine. The winners will be rewarded with money reward.

The World Bank, UN European Economic Commission, Islamic Development Bank, “Parasat” Holding, JSC “National Innovation Fund” and Kazakhstani Center of State-private Partnership supported the Forum. General sponsor of the Forum is JSC “National Wellbeing Fund ‘Samruk-Kazyna’” and JSC “National Company ‘KazMunaiGas’.”

Association “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists”

010000, Astana c., Left Bank, m-n Chubari

Temirkazik Str. 65

Telephones: +7 (7172) 70 18 04, 8701 705 74 95

Faxes: +7 7172 70 18 35

E-mail: smi@aef.kz, aef2010@bk.ru

Web-site: http://www.aef.kz

“Only heart can foreseen. Main things can’t be seen by eyes”

Saint-Exupéry

Sociology stays as one of the most discredited sciences in Kazakhstan. Perhaps only philology, historical and political science can be regarded the same. But even if sociological measurements itself are not put in doubt (which is not typical for Kazakhstani environment), then conclusions are made by each one. Experts and interpreters are trying to get in heads of common people, but as a rule without success. Academic hideousy and political engagement are coming into contradiction with everyday experience of the people.

Human capital assets is quite unique. There is nothing to wonder about – just to look upon last hundred years in history of the republic. Stopypin agricultural reforms and resettlement of peasants from central regions of Russian Empire on the outskirts directed by it, First World War, pan-Kazakh rebellion of 1916, February and October revolutions of 1917, the civil war, dekulakization, collectivization and famine caused by ut in the end of 20th – beginning of 30th, repressions of 1937—1939, Great Patriotic War…

And then clearing of virgin soils, crisis of administrative-command system of economics and Communistic party monopoly on power, and finally USSR disintegration. By the second half of 20th century Kazakhstan has actually survived atomic war – 491 nuclear explosions, part of which were far from being underground. The era of independency has started with economical crisis and economic degradation and violent migrational processes. In the beginning of 00’s the economy seemingly started to develop, but at that cemented the abyss between rich and poor along with insignificant middle class.

And then there was economical crisis, unsealing affairs with housing construction, mortgage loans and realty bubble, hypertrophied scales of peculation and corruption. All this on the background of continuing worsening of governmental administration and service quality, degradation of educational and public health systems on the background of its service prices growth. And also there was virtually unlimited growth of rates on housing and utilities and other services of monopolists. Along with that the discredit of law-enforcing, legal and military systems, the war of power-financial clans, administrative and legal lawlessness.

To survive in such condition without immigration from the country and to keep on the surface of society as a bum or a prisoner of colony, a one should be at least extraordinary man. However, this is without trying Kazakhs to make entry into Guinness Book on the indicator of “no limit to angelic patience”. The year 1986 showed and proved that with Chiron approach it can explode in any single moment – it might be only interest in serious circles, which have needful resources.

Thus, what an average Kazakh took from the last fifty years of history, living all his life within the boarders of his republic? On the mind, he would have certainty that life has a tendency to be worsened. For that it is enough to recall the mental outlook during Moscow Olympic Games of 1980, empty counters of 1990’s, unemployment growth and decrease of real incomes of 2010. Obviously, it doesn’t it has nothing to do with short periods of good things: flow of information during Perestroyka, emergence of Internet, on time p

For that reason when people been said that everything has exaggerated and bored them, it is not the reason to thing that tomorrow they will go out on a square and start to crash governmental property. As a matter of fact, such things are also possible, but generally it is not the most possible scenario. Until there is something to feed on in the fridge, children are employed and have salary, and criminal elements are not outraged until the level when villains are rushing in people housing – it is a temptation to continue “charming” moments. It is never to late to throw Molotovs on police cars and to fight marauders (or try yourself as one). So for that reason today a common person in its masses choosing between familiar evil (acting political regime) and unfamiliar (what would be after it or instead of it), and they choose familiar.

Since energy and water supply systems are working, although with interruptions. There is something to eat and something to feed on. And there is somebody to stop extremists when they are going to completely forget about checks and balances mechanisms. On this silent and patient basis, Nursultan Nazarbayev can be whatever he wants to be – leader of the nation or Khan of all Kazakhs. On the memory of one generation, which gone from planned economy to the market one to live better, only ten percent truly started to live better, whereas other 90% only worse. If one avoided accruing contradictory luck to steal and peculate – one should value what given.

Hence phenomenon incomprehensible to many experts, when a man clearly unsatisfied with existing state of things, but voting for power (at least, not giving his vote to the opposition). Swedish and British patterns are inappropriate here.

Kazakhstan now survives one bitch of an era, when every new breed of government officials is worse than their predecessors. Drug addiction and alcoholism are seizing all of social space. Sexual loose on one side and women in purdah on the other; but their dress-code is by no means a guarantee of chastity and morality. There are very few famous persons in public view that can be described as “Human being” in highest meaning of the word, let alone more precise – a “Citizen” (Azamat)…

However, it is not allowed to cheer of cheat you up in huge, spacious and rich offices. Today is not the right day for it. It is always extremely hard to keep all that was in abundance. But there are people with abundance, and they are too noticeable. Empty fridge, lack of earnings and injustice could be settled in such combination, when it can push to find meaning of existence above high fences of luxurious mansions. And when such thing will happen, then no police officers could do anything with it. It is only worth to remember what happened during April events in Bishkek, when angered crowd was not stopper by snipers and machine gun bursts at short range.

Ruling regime should be thinking about self-discipline as soon as the day before. The desire to get hands on next billion is understandable and explainable, but not when it concerns questions of system survival, and people living in it in the same time. The most objective sociological researches are witnessing: the number of satisfied with living is decreasing, whereas the percentage of displeased is growing. The trend for the last half of year is obvious, disturbing and dangerous.

The power is catastrophically underestimating disrespect to labour, formed in the society. When labour is not respected and not allowed because of bureaucratic pressure on small business, not valuing and not giving an opportunity to normally feed one – is completely prepared social bomb with clock mechanism. It was necessary to leave this road already yesterday and the day before. There is no time left to do nothing but sitting. Since when one sitting, the situation is worsening.

A revolution destroys no less good things than it creates. Because of that there must be always something for average person that he is afraid to lose. The main thing for poverty is people. And if a child can get any kind of education, the other was murdered by bandits for fun, no job to do for a third and, a house is going to be destructed by bulldozer since it is illegal – it is easy to make a prognosis, where all accumulated anger will go. For the matter that the present system can’t win hypothetical one by points, and miserable ones would want to take risk. This is guaranteed even by political sociology.

Representatives of oppositional parties spoke out immediately regarding to new laws consolidating Nursultan Nazarbayev’s status as the Leader of the Nation. Principally, their buzzwords could be left without attention except for one thing.

“We appeal to begin the campaign on preschedule termination of presidential authorities as the Leader of the Nation, and if his servants will hinder to people will expression – then to start protest action”, — they stated at the press conference in Almaty, the 13th of May.

Who said that in such mood? They are: Communistic party of Kazakhstan, Social Opposition political party, Alga chronically unregistered political party, some representatives of Nationwide Social Democratic Party, Ak Zhol party, Patriots of Kazakhstan political party and some public associations.

What opinion these parties do express?

There are a lot of signers under that petition, but first that strike the eye is the following: 5 persons represents themselves only, 40 persons represents public associations or social funds. How many supporters are behind them – there’s impossible to check. Even if there are 20-30 men behind them at least, though it’s not always so, then we can say that they express the opinion around of 1200 men. Well, let it be 1500 or even 2000 men. It’s vanishing small range even if we take into consideration small size population of Kazakhstan.

So, we can say more or less that populace opinion express the representatives of political parties somehow. We can calculate the approximate range of citizens of the Republic, which these parties are covered (with all the conventions, since accurate data on the membership has not been updated):

Communistic party of Kazakhstan – 54.2 thousand of members,

Nationwide Social Democratic Party and Azat – 140 thousand of members,

Ak zhol political party – 175.8 thousand of members,

Patriots of Kazakhstan political party – 172 thousand of members,

Alga! Political party – 53 thousand of members.

It is 595 thousand of people in total. However, we need to keep in mind the fact that many parties have enough deadheads, which formally enlisted as members, but really don’t take any part in the life of the party at all. Such members were spoken as “he is keeping aloof himself from party life” in the All-Union Communist Party and it was the strong reason for expulsion.

Though even if we take the whole nominative list and assume that all members are agree with the opinion expressed in petition then it’s not enough any way. There are about 8.9 million people who can vote in Kazakhstan and the nominative list of abovementioned political parties are around 6,6% of this amount. If these parties come to a referendum and have mobilized all members without exception (which is seemed to be completely unbelievable), they still would have suffered a crushing defeat.

The usurpation of the views of the Party

However, do statements of the parties’ representatives and leaders really reflect the views of all members of the parties? It seems, that no, it doesn’t. The views of the majority of these parties could be expressed only in case when the petition was brought to the attention of all grassroots organizations of parties and discussed there with the coming to common decision and documenting in the minutes. The majority of party membership must vote for expression of this or that viewpoint.

There is another way, which is: to elect delegates for party congress; the delegates are vested with authority to express an opinion should fully consider any statement and then vote on it. The decision of party congress can be reason for any statement or petition.

Then, another question is raised: can abovementioned political parties represent the minutes of grassroots party organizations or documented decision of party congress hold with all chartered rules and regulations? No, they can’t. It’s not quite clear, who gave Gaziz Aldamzharov the right to speak for all communists in Kazakhstan and to sign the petition?

We see another picture, it’s quite back-alley in the light of the petition. They supposedly protest against Khan’s reign. Though, what form of regulating is in their own parties? Leaders of parties make the important policy statement without any discussion with the members, without any gathering meetings or congresses; they usurp the right of parties’ members to express their views. What is it? It’s Khan’s reign.

Besides that they are in absolute minority, the leaders of the parties act clearly and visibly in non-democratic way by assigning themselves the right to speak for parties members everything they were taken into their heads. We need to ask the members of the parties: you, please, call your leaders to follow the rules of party discipline, to listen their own members and to struggle for democracy, oh please, please….

So what claims we can raise to mazhilismen and senators? Mazhilis of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan was elected at direct elections, their deputies were voted the majority of electorate in Kazakhstan; and we can say that it’s direct and merit of Nur-Otan National Democratic Party. Nur-Otan is not trying to usurp the views of their members and every important decision is taken through the congress also. For example, “Action Strategy NDP «Nur Otan» for 2009—2012” was adopted on the 12th party congress. The strategy draft was previously discussed, the party members elected 600 delegates who voted for this policy document.

Among all the others only Green Party Rukhaniyat hold the congress there it formed the changes in the party management and represent it’s new platform. It was exactly representing because we cannot find no any signs of previous discussion of the subject. Delegates were gathered and they were represented new prepared platform with words: you can something like vote, comrades…. We may not talk at all about management of other parties; they manipulate with the views of their parties members as they want.

However, for fairness’ sake, we must say that there are opposite examples in the activity of parties: it’s the leader dissociation from party activity. It’s about the senator and leader of Patriots of Kazakhstan party – Gani Kasymov. He’s settled in Senate of Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan so well that he almost forgot about his party duties. He everywhere speaks just like Senator but not the as leader of political party. He only can be recommended to hand over management of the party to somebody else within the moving to another job.

Disciplinary question

On a discipline, by the way. Among the signers of the petition we see some strange surnames: G.Y. Vlasov – Kostanay region branch of NSDP; E.I. Svintsova – the 1st Secretary of Kostanay’s region branch of Patriots of Kazakhstan party; I. Bulgakov – Ust-Kamenogorsk, NSDP Azat branch; Otegenov Zhanysbek, Shymkent, Azat party branch; A.F. Fazylov – Karaganda’s region branch of NDP Ak Zhol; etc.

It was more logic somehow if the petition signers were leaders of region branches of the parties, if they were the leaders of the parties; though, there are no any signatures, neither the co-chairmen NSDP Azat, nor the leader of Patriots of Kazakhstan party – Gani Kasymov.

This affects not only the parties but public organizations also. In the petition there are signatures of Zambyl and Pavlodar region branches of Shanyrak Republican Public Organization (last signature is twice in mystically way). It’s interesting on the basis what decision do they act? Does the chairman of Shanyrak RPO, Asylbek Kazhakhmetov, know about such position of his followers? Does he support them? It’s interesting to know too, does certain A.F. Dokuchaeva (the twice signer as well) act on her behalf or not, because there is no any mention on Pavlodar’s region branch in Shanyrak RPO website?

Who did authorize them such action? Let’s repeat: on the basis what decision do they act? Does the position of those who signed match the position of leadership and other members of these parties? It seems that these signers have imagined themselves as «a great politician», and decided to put signatures under the petition in flagrant violation of their charter and authority. Such persons have small understanding on elementary party discipline; what can we talk about with them then?

It’s interesting to look at their parties’ leaders’ reaction on partisan’s actions of its region branches. Principally, such flagrant violations can be a reason to remove the signers from their office and to exclude them from the party. Such members can bring only harm to party. If we see, the disciplinary punishment wasn’t implemented to the signers then we may consider leaders of the parties agree with the lack of discipline in their party’s ranks, or even they connive at the party’s violations.

Bees against honey

What do they oppose, at least? They oppose against of giving to Nursultan Nazarbayev the status of Leader of the Nation. What do they do in their own parties? They do the same thing, interestingly! Recently honorary members appeared in several parties. Rukhaniyat party congress passed the authority of chairman to Serikzhan Mambetalin in March, 2010; whereas the party’s founder and until recently chairman of Rukhaniyat party – Altynshash Dzhaganova became the honorary member. Communistic party of Kazakhstan passed the authority to Gaziz Aldamzharov; whereas the 1st Secretary of the party until recently – Serikbolsyn Abdildin has became the honorary member as well.

Why does Abdildin oppose Leader of the Nation status for Nazarbayev when he’s got the same status from his members of party? Generally, if there is the fashion to give to the retired party’s leaders the title of «honorary member», then why not to give to Nursultan Nazarbayev the status of «Leader of the Nation»?

We see double standards, it’s amazing!

Generally, oppositional parties and public organizations supporting them next time proved their own extreme narrow-mindedness in combination with extremely non-democratic way to take decisions in their organizations and Khan’s reign in it, flagrant violations of party discipline and direct usage of double standards.

A hero does everything that could be done. Others wouldn’t do it

Romen ROLAND

People of USSR (and post-Soviet space) not only paid the highest price for the victory in Great Patriotic War, but found out all the truth about 1939—1945 period from last hands. From the day of uncommitted surrender of Nazi Germany until 65th anniversary a lion’s share of real truth is known by now. This is relatively the same as with count of overall Soviet direct victims, which are for the last fifteen years moving from 26 million of dead to 27 million, but yet without surges as it was before. Dark alleys and spots of fatal years are alighted quite narrowly, and something huge and staggering can’t be hidden away. Given truth is witnessing: on 22 of June 1941 one couldn’t surrender at discretion of conqueror. Those who shot an enemy those days, punctured with bayonet, chopped with entrenching shovel (the Red Army was only one of its kind, where entrenching shovel was more of an arm blanche than a pioneer tool), gone into ram attack (during the first days of war 15 Luftwaffe planes were victims of Soviet ram attacks) – were right from beginning to end. With all bloodlust and inexcusable violence of Stalin regime there were no alternatives existed for people of one sixth part of ecumene at that historical moment.

When schoolboys of Kazakhstan are painting battles of Second World War, then for the majority of them “our” are those people who carrying red stars on their shoulders. Although particular social activists and publicists in recent times are allowing themselves passages that Stalin’s USSR and Hitler’s Germany is the same thing at bottom, but such point of view is not having massive backing. Nazi henchmen couldn’t manage an overturn in people minds, even in Yuschenko period in Ukraine, taking all his hard-headed glorification of Stepan Bendera and Galichina SS division. Despite all the efforts of ideologists and remarkable creativeness of myths brought by them and power of state’s propaganda apparatus. What to say about Kazakhstan, where only General Rodimtsev division, which reconquered almost lost city of Stalingrad in September 1942, can be matched by frequency of mentioning with General’s Panfilov Division formed in it.

Fiasco of Neo-Bandera would become more certain if to appeal to front-line soldiers who freed Poltava. It wasn’t Ukraine’s largest city even before the war (unlike Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa). During period of occupation Hitler soldiers killed 18.2 thousands of local civilians, including more than 5,000 of children; 20.8 thousand men were reived as compulsory labour in Germany. During Battle of Dnepr in August 1943, Soviet Army liberated Poltava on 23 of September. During retreat German Nazi troops were systematically burned down the city from 21 of September. There was no single building left in one piece in the center of Poltava.

After seeing barbarities with their own eyes, Soviet soldiers didn’t take prisoners for a few weeks on the part of theatre of war. Yet Germans were not surrendering themselves, recognizing that they have nothing to rely on. That’s why the monument dedicated to Swedish gentlemen of fortune for Poltava battle in 1709 is still staying, but Hitler’s sadists will not get any honorary monument and can’t be foreseen. Even with Hungarians, German allies at those times, there is no conciliation yet foreseen. Hungarian division, for instance, were camped around Bryansk forest and engaged in guerilla liquidation, robbing, raping and shooting civilians by the way.

It is Kazakhstani people and Kazakhs that know especially what the face of Soviet government was. Communists are not only factories, facilities, education and health safety systems. It also is hunger and death of dispossession, ALZHIR (Akmola Camp for Wives of Country’s Traitors), punishers of NKVD secret police, and repressions on the most educated and honorable among people. But at those times the borderline was between Buchenwald and Karlag. Even those who caught the trick understood that Karlag is winning by score. In Buchenwald, apropos, out of tenth thousands of children aged between 3 to 14 year old, who passed 19-th barrack, only 900 stayed alive to the moment of rebellion in the end of 1945. Kazakh hunters, who became in masses point men on 45 millimeter antitank guns (standard monikers of guns were “goodbye Rodina” and “death to the enemy – end of crew”), hardly knew anything about concentration camps, but been surrounded on Barvenkov heights, shot until the last shell. Thank to them amongst other things, as to Mogilev’s protectors, Hitler soldiers’ resources were finished in the end. For that reason all of those who stood on until the end and being captured didn’t deserted to the enemy, are surely have their own share in Our Own Victory.

A big was has a unique ability to show things in their real appearance. Everything here is perceived in true meaning: food, water, clothing, relatives, homeland, self-abnegation, friendship, fear, betrayal, honesty, infamy… Since everybody suddenly found themselves in common submarine (even assuming its size), they declined a heap of needless and useless very quickly. Even communists. rivaling with God with their ideas of Marxism-Leninism, opened churches and mosques for service. Market relations were actually permitted, peasants were given rights to sell their produce from private lands, and nobody pursued or punished them for that. They gave weapons to huge masses of yesterday’s prisoners. Yet many believed that after Heroic Act of people live would bу easier and justified. But veterans and workers of the home front are not to be blamed that the Victory was stolen from them.

If every Soviet soldier would kill one soldier from army of Germany and its allies, then there will be no men in enemy countries. Losses were clearly not in favour of USSR, especially in 1941—1942. But there’s no need to feel sorry. After repressions of 1937—1939, idiotic guidelines that one and a half soviet division will crash one enemy division only on that basis that they are consist of peasants and workers, and the enemy – from capitalists, it was hardly to expect different. Furthermore, there was Stalin’s paranoia that if he wouldn’t give casus belli, then Hitler wouldn’t attack… The order to keep motor operation time and fuel, whereas soldiers are not trained to do so. On 22 of June 1941 the Red Army had 1.5 thousand T-34 tanks and only 50 well-trained crews in the full meaning of word. There is widely known fact that if to upload multiple military data about USSR and Germany on 22nd of June in the eve of the war into computer, than it’s not giving the victory to Soviet Union. Because many parameters can’t be uploaded into machine, including bravery.

From 22 of June to 9 of July 1941, the Red Army lost 11 thousand tanks. On summer 1942 our army was actually defeated for the second time. And then nevertheless there was Stalingrad, after which Hitler’s military machine yet couldn’t restore itself. As a matter of fact, military industry of Germany compensated all losses to Wehrmacht until 1944, but people weren’t the same. On the background of soviet indicators of defense industry Germany also looking weak. The industry, salvaged to the east, gave 144.000 planes only through the years of war. The salvation itself knows no analogues in global history. Sometimes it took only three month from the moment of dismantlement on old place to production beginning on a new one. For 1940—1945 period armament industry of USSR produced 35467 T-34 tanks and 3534 KV-1 and KV-2 tanks, 6 million PPSH (Shpagin submachine gun), 1,5 million SVT (Tokarev self-reloading rifle). Legendary interceptor Il-2, known under “flying tank” moniker, in general became the most mass produced plane for the whole history of mankind. And also there was Grabin’s ZIS-3 canon of 76mm caliber – a masterpiece of bombardment artillery.

Particular regards to Richard Zorge. The great intelligence officer didn’t steal a single document for his extremely effective career. Being analyst, he received strategic information from reports in press, stock news, personal observations, talks in clubs. However, this was enough in the very climax of USSR war to move 20 well-trained and well-armed divisions from Far East.

With all respect to part of Allies in anti-Hitler coalition, more than 90% of Wehrmacht forces were eliminated on Eastern Front. At that, also Hungarians, Finns, Romans, Italians, Croats and SS vermin from all over Europe (SS were “ideological” forces, and for that reason it gave room even for formally “race defected”), “Blue Division” of Spanish (a friendly gesture to Hitler from Franco). Except for Slovaks were more imitated warfare and showed them at full pack whilst passed on Soviet side. During hardest years, 1941—1942, Yugoslavia was actually the second froте for USSR against Hitler. For example, in 1941 12 German divisions couldn’t make it to Moscow since they got stuck on Balkans.

Not in any case we want to underestimate US and UK contribution (including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, Gurkha from Nepal and others). We remember Fighting France, Brazilian Corps, which fought on Italian theatre of war. Supplies of vehicles, planes, foodstuffs, fuel, sheet steel by land-lease. Bombing German cities was too important. For the reason to let know common Hans, holding defense in Kurland, that his Gretchen, who asked to find a good place and slaves for future manor is already in the other world and waiting for him impatiently. If Americans could create atomic bomb before 9th of May then it is quite certain that it would be used against Germany. Because this was a war on elimination by general global waterfront. Even such countries as Iran couldn’t be neutral. And there were also Japan and war on Pacific Ocean.

However, the thing about any war is not to be proud of friendly, the more so of winners, because any war has defeated side. At that, it is particularly hard to say that people on defeated side are… friendly. Today there is a lot written about both those who were fighting against will or by good will on the side of Wehrmacht. Those are not only many European nations, but also Kalmyks, part of Cossacks, Russians, Ukrainians, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians… There were also Kazakh and people of Central Asia. This is a painful topic, and with every new year we finding more documents and myths about General Vlasov, about founder of Turkestan legion Mustapha Shokay… There are streets in Almaty named after him. Was he a traitor of a true patriot of Kazakhstani land? Oк he and such activists with hard fate were simply victims of history and its last two World Wars. Or was he, controversially, a prophet of something divine and unclear in that times? There is a lot of work ahead to restore the whole historical picture of happened.

The question is not, that we allegedly are imprisoned by old stereotypes (although it is also), simply rendering homage to victors, we wouldn’t forget about those who were blamed in due time by the book “fall of Big Turkestan” of Serik Shakibayev. Blamed without right to be rehabilitated, not to mention simple human understanding and forgiveness. In this meaning educated Europe are much more humane and honest in such questions, if only a person is not involved in crimes against humanity and such things. For instance, veterans of “Blue division” are not ashamed in Spain, still receiving pensions on the same rights as victims of Holocaust from Germany state budget. That is besides support from the own country. And legionnaires? They are too veterans of Second World War! Let from the side of defeated. We will repeat once again – we speaking obviously about soldiers and not about punishers and sadists. Why things here are not as it is in Spain, to my mind, is not worth a curse. But since we are on the way to Europe, it is worth to think about it…

In any case, there is a powerful systematization of everything. Including history. Thus, everything must be sorted out intently. Possibly, it is now the time to be engaged in such questions narrowly, obviously without curtains and exaltation, considering literally every circumstance of those times. All that is needed by our descendants, future generations, to put everything on its place to 70th anniversary of our victory in this manner. Compliments to all of you! Glory to heroes! Honour to veterans. Death to foes and their allies!

Third Astana Economic Forum will be held in the capital of Kazakhstan on July 1st-2nd. This year it will be dedicated to the topic “Sustainable Economic Growth in post-Crisis Period.”

Annual economic forum will bring together above 2000 representatives of political and business circles from more than 50 countries of the world, as well as leading scientists, public and mass media representatives, in order to discuss key issues of global economic development.

The following guests were invited for the Forum as speakers: Secretary General of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, Secretary General of Economic Cooperation Organization, Advisor to the President of Afghanistan, Muhammad Maarufi, scientists-economists, laureates of Nobel Prize in Economics, heads and representatives of European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, Asian Development Bank, Internal Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, energy and oil companies, largest investment companies, banks, price agencies, financial centers, including HSBS, Islamic International Rating Agency, RFCA and others.

High guests will make reports and take part in discussions on actual issues of social-economic security providing in post-crisis period.

Business Forum of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs with participation of above 300 delegates from different countries will become large event of Astana Economic Forum. The main goal of the Forum is creation of Eurasian Business Congress directed on expansion of mutually beneficial trade-economic connections and investment cooperation on Eurasian space and interaction in development of perspective and high-technology economic spheres.

Conference entitled “Conference of State-private Partnership of Pease Centers” will be held on the first day of Forum. Representatives of State-private Partnership Centers, central and local executive bodies, experts and representatives of non-governmental organizations will take part in discussions.

As final stage of the given discussion organizers see signing of Memorandum on Creation of Unified Source (international center) of State-private Partnership.

International conference dedicated to mechanisms of Islamic financing regulation in the conditions of post-crisis development will be held in the frames of the Forum. The primary goal of the event will become formation of integral system of Islamic financing regulation in Kazakhstan. Above 280 participants, including heads and representatives of financial institutions, small and medium-sized business representatives, primary financial regulators of the RK, state institutions, which carry out control-supervision function of Islamic financial institutions, heads of investment funds in RK will take part in the work of the Conference.

Experts acknowledge that foundation of economic recovery in post-crisis period is resultative and effective-functional national innovation system.

In connection with this, Innovative Congress with participation of key figures and companies, which play important role in innovative technologies’ development, will be organized in the frames of Third Astana Economic Forum. Representatives of state structures for innovations and technologies from Finland, Norway, Germany, Korea, France and Israel will share positive experience of national innovative economics’ development and recommendations for innovative policy in Central Asian countries and Kazakhstan.

Exhibition of industrial-innovative projects and scientific works will also take place in the frames of the given event.

In addition to these events, Third Astana Economic Forum will be rich in events of different format. These are thematic exhibitions, roundtable discussions and presentations dedicated to formation of global energy-ecology strategy, management training program, place and role of youth in ensuring sustainable economic growth in post-crisis period and many other.

The World Bank, UN European Economic Commission, Islamic Development Bank, “Parasat” Holding, JSC “National Innovation Fund” and Kazakhstani Center of State-private Partnership supported the Forum. General sponsor of the Forum is JSC “National Wellbeing Fund ‘Samruk-Kazyna’” and JSC “National Company ‘KazMunaiGas’.”

In order to participate in the Forum it is required to fill in electronic application form on www.aef.kz site in chapter “Electronic Application.” Accreditation of Kazakhstani journalists for the Forum is in effect until June 25th, 2010; accreditation for foreign journalists is in effect until June 10th, 2010.

Association “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists”

010000, Astana c., Left Bank, m-n Chubari

Temirkazik Str. 65

Telephones: +7 (7172) 70 18 04, 8701 705 74 95

Faxes: +7 7172 70 18 35

E-mail: smi@aef.kz, aef2010@bk.ru

Web-site: http://www.aef.kz

Coups are committed to the deadlock.

Bertolt Brecht

Revolution excites, even if you had nothing from it personally and haven’t suffered within it; last one is not good, of course, but it is unforgettable any way. Bishkek is real post-revolutionary city.

It seems like great liquor warehouse was seized here and drunk without appetizers. So, everybody is drunk but hungry. It’s much more difficult to understand something in the situation, and as it always happens, excessive alcohol consumption causes ...

Bishkek energetics was different from Almaty energetics long before the first tulip revolution. Soviet nine-panel buildings seemed higher in Almaty even at the times of Askar Akayev, although the Kazakhstani metropolis was not built up with a large number of mammoth buildings yet then. If you take the dormitory suburbs of the Kyrgyz’ capital, particularly standard five-story buildings, you’d physically feel the aura poverty then. Analogue suburbs in Almaty are weariness and anxiety (alcoholics, drug addicts, provincial criminals), and the poverty was added in Bishkek.

I forgot how to eat an ice-cream in the streets of that city. I used to go on the street eating ice-cream and see eyes of children walking with their parents. Parents’ eyes show they would like to buy their children an ice-cream also, but they haven’t money. Children look at you with sad and understanding eyes. You see, they want to eat the delicacies also although they clearly know their parents don’t have money, so they don’t ask parents to buy them it.

As usual the situation of poverty drove people to become a streetwalker.

After inadequate Askar Akayev was ousted out from the state management of our south neighbors, Bishkek sank into high dynamics condition. As usual scenario the redistribution of property has happened then. Suddenly, it turned out that the half of all useful in the Kyrgyz’ capital, directly or indirectly controlled by the family of deposed president. Somebody decided to transform its nominal property in real one status, another wanted to seize somebody’s property. There has become more political players as it always happens after the revolution; various criminal foam went at the surface. Principally, it’s complete and total revolutionary pack.

The priestesses of love who worked in the hotels and saunas felt nostalgic for Akayev’s times at the first post-revolutionary year. They did the same at the second one also. The third year system came into balance more or less. Prostitutes referred to the worsening of life in general and their sexuality in particular somewhere during the year before the second tulip revolution, kicked Bakiyev and his many voracious relatives out of the state management.

Global economic crisis pressed too much from the one side: transit trade volumes fell down, Kyrgyzstan clothing production’s demand was shrunk, the flow of tourists was reduced in the Issyk-Kul; on the other side, BAKS’ family (Bakiyev Kurmanbek Salievich) has begun to lose brakes in the process of privatization of state property and deprivation the control of private one. As for officials gang then it’s not less dangerous for local small and middle size business (by Kyrgyz level) as in Kazakhstan. Simply our consumption background is more manured with raw materials incomes, but Kyrgyzstan they have only poor business glades without fertilize.

My last visit to Bishkek was before the second revolution and it left the feeling that the situation is on the very brink. Though, as we know such situation in the East says nothing. The revolution can blow up here as tomorrow, as in five years as well. Life of usual citizens in Taskent much more worse than in Bishkek but Islam Karimov takes his seat a year by year (after Andizhan incident) and as good as cucumber would be. So, after the second tulip revolution act appeared to be everything was understood naturally. It was logically that there were many corpses. Kurmanbek Bakiyev publicly promised to hold his power by all he only might to hold; the list of political murders from his side was already huge even before April incident.

The revolutionary tradition and inertia is very hard thing. BAKS has visited the Dad in Minsk, Bishkek is in new wave of property redistribution. Many were killed but we won’t dramatize the situation. Killers are called for only in the segment of large business where the property redistribution of Bakieyv’s clan is on the way and his clan’s satellites that didn’t catch the train in time as well.

The threat for citizens in Kyrgyz capital is in those who were called myrka in local jargon. It’s people from hopeless province and poor Bishkek suburbs. Robbery is their native element, especially at night. Practically, myrkas cover by its criminal activity whole territory of megalopolis, but it’s more quiet near important city’s objects and buildings and inside them.

By the way, as Bishkek business got great revolutionary vaccination in 2005, it experienced the second act of tulip revolution more quietly than the first one. There are less messed and broken shops, caterings and entertainment centers. Main expenses were made by the Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan borders closing. Our bars were slightly raised but it’s difficult to say when the Dordoy bazaar (The biggest market in Central Asia) will be opened. There are some barriers within the Custom Union also. Uzbekistan holds its borders closing very firmly. Islam Karimov remembers the blow up in Ferghana valley after the first tulip revolution.

Enemies of caretaker government try to swing inter-ethnical tension in Kyrgyzstan. We must give the credits to Kyrgyz people. Local people are full of precaution systems when sober. It’s very dangerous to behave yourself badly in the region where you don’t know what will happen after even a small slaughter. That’s why Thanatos forces usual people to be polite and courteous. The first sign that something is not good is free vodka distribution by doubtful persons with limited appetizers. To be true, Bishkek is under control now and inter-ethnic destabilization is focused in the South regions. Kyrgyz people are getting drunk and are sent to bully Uzbeks in Jalalabad.

Policemen behave themselves in proper way in the streets of the city and it makes sick. The memory of the 2005 year appeared to be very good. Last year of Bakiyev’s ruling policemen became insolent till the level of their Almaty’s colleagues. Though, the second tulip revolution disciplined them. People in blue uniform remembered quickly as they were beaten in squares and back streets. They were beaten sometimes not for they are in the other side of barricades but for old offences made by them to citizens. Such model education for the whole team fully leads to the situation when practically every policeman is polite, well-wishing and friendly.

Post-revolution prices on commercial sex are practically the same as it was before the revolution. To be fair, the purchasing power had decreased. At that the prostitutes are not taking prices down, preferring to work less. Actually, the sex-industry of Bishkek is out on unpaid vacation.

The lower price cap for commercial sex without loosing nerves is 1000 Soms per hour. Recommended are 2 grand. For connoisseurs it’s 3000 Soms per hour. But it is already are in premium category. You can’t actually “be relaxed” in Almaty for such money. I repeat: the girls are not exhausted by professional work and rested for the period of idle time by virtue of revolutionary moves. The relation to the clients on institution’s territories is quivering and kind. You, from your own side, should observe financial discipline. To do so is easy, because all money are paid in advance.

Concerning saunas as places for rest, then there money is paid both in advance and after the end. Everything looks pretty cheap, but when you are stayed there for five hours, smoked kalian and a bottle of pepper vodka with red caviar – the overall will be enough. Do not be lazy, sort out your budget before visiting good places.

In economic class segment the demand has decreased for the reason that many started to prefer to make supplies of products instead spending money on pleasures. Premium class, as it appeared in revolution time, is in many ways been supported on account of multiple international NGO employees, participants of round tables, seminars and trainings, which were held in Bishkek in larger amount. By virtue of force-major everything has been busted on without date. Because of that it is the season for the fans of good and calm sex-experience without many people witnessing. But one should be very careful on the streets.

Revolution is revolution, but if prices are still on the same level then the demand is staying stabile. Rare gunfights on the outskirts of the city can’t really blast commercial sex industry. As historical practice shows, the most harming thing for it is economic devastation and passage to barter relations. The prostitutes love money; and to work for a bag of potatoes is not prostitution – its economical connections of civilization fall period.

The main thing is to overtax oneself in spiritual search

The book of thousand and one wagons

Recent political life of Kazakhstan is once again witnessing: every major event happens in only two cities – Astana and Almaty. The strike in Zhanaozen, radical protests in Aktobe – are too, serious, but still not within highest political league. Because in the Southern capital, if one would chop a fish’s head, and it’s already would get serious informational vibrance. But if one poisons anyone in some place of Kyzylorda district – the even would be in typical accidents.

There is a general thought, that every functioning system is better than nothing. However, any system has not only beginning and end in terms of historical time, but also those who support it (actively or passively) or destroying it. As the architect of modern Kazakhstani model (political, socio-economical, legal) is inherently interested in continuation of its functioning and reproduction. But yet in his closest circles there are those who would happily replace the first principal on his position.

To get the desirable place, it is not enough only to have willingness and money. There are allies required, at least a little known on political field. The field itself is present first of all in Almaty and Astana. There contenders on Chair Number One will look for their resources.

Astana is relatively easy to handle and control by ruling regime. There are lots of authorities and state domestic holding, form and spirit of which transforming people into quasi-state workers. Also there are lots of law-enforcement agencies’ and defense ministry’s employees. As the result, political impulses in the capital are going from top to bottom. Combustible layers of society, which are named “cheated shareholders and mortgage slaves” are only appeared recently only in connection with bank affairs and construction corporations. Economic crisis factor together with ineffectiveness of governmental bodies are not allowing to this thromb resolving. As he result the nutrition environment for activity of such politicians as ex-senator Zauresh Battalova. She is certainly a woman of feisty character, but factually been forced to be a guerilla, because she don’t have enough resources on full-fledged political force. But it worth to do justice to Madame Battalova – she is mastering the potential active protest niche quite handy and professionally.

By stratification of people and structure of the city itself Almaty is very different from Astana. In addition the Southern Capital is informally four times bigger than the administrative capital in terms of population, which means passage from quantity changes to quality ones. Specific “weight” of Ruler’s Block in measures of metropolis is substantially lesser than in Astana. Instead, there is more small and middle business, NGO’s. independent and oppositional mass-media. Protest and oppositional space is also can’t be compared to the ones in Astana.

The enemy number one for the authorities until the present day is Aynur Kurmanov, Social Resistance (unregistered organization) and “Kazakhstan-2012” movement, Talmas movement (registered organization) leader. When policemen kidnapping Mr. Kurmanov from his office and then giving 15 days of administrative arrest, then they act completely boundlessly, whereas by codes of reason – correctly. The thing is that real center of all unsanctioned protest movements is Aynur Kurmanov. Although the law-enforcement system of Almaty can’t apply any of formal legal conviction on him. There is nothing confusing in this, since not only housing and utilities infrastructure, educational and public health services systems are degrading.

Aynur Kurmanov is ideological adversary to present Kazakhstani system. It is the complete speaking fact about him. It’s a little amazing that an organization with impossible name for 2001, the Socialistic Resistance, has powerfully shot out in 2006 and since then makes its “overseers restless from year to year. But on this point it is worth to keep in mind that after almost all socialistic countries have gone from the planet Earth, nobody on countries level are focusing left vector on themselves. Because of that in conditions of globalization, social injustice, governmental ineffectiveness and corruption, left ideas are going inside societies and finding an arm there. Serious researchers are giving very short term until the moment, when left-wing and left-leaning ideas will gain very powerful force.

By confronting to comrade Kurmanov’s group, the Power chose second echelon attacking practice. That means that they “influencing” on new comers to achieve avoidance effect. Such model from one side is harming to rapid growth of numbers of social resistance members, and from the other leads to amazing for Kazakhstan unity of the core (those who defied to threats in the second echelon are quickly joining the core). If there will be then or more people identical to Aynur Kurmanov himself along with further strengthening of network type of organizational activities, and they will put Almaty on ears in any favorable moment to them. Physical assassination attempt in the last years and preventive administrative arrests in this is showing of panic and intellectual and organizational impotence of special services – simply for the matter that the effect from all this actions is strictly controversial.

Only one circumstance can calm down the power – that comrade Kurmanov would not play for one or other pretenders on the #1 chair, since he is fighting in his own war. Although a point of pretender’s and Trotskyists’ interests crossing could be found in any moment, and then most diverse options are possible.

The enemy number two is infrastructure (political and media) of runaway banker Mukhtar Ablyazov. Alga! Political party under surveillance of Vladimir Kozlov and media holdings with overall direction of Irina Petrushova are the key containments of this massive. We naming it number two since fighters against regime here are not ideal but mercenaries. If Mr. Ablyazov will say “enough!” and reconciliation of both opposing parties will happen, then the notorious newspaper “Republic” will start writing articles on topic “Nursultan Nazarbayev is the best leader of the nation”.

Apart from political decisions of Mukhtar Ablyazov, his money is critical important. As soon as financing will end, the mercenaries will disperse in seconds. And to keep all this establishments to runaway banker is getting harder and harder through time. Taken away from generous breast of Kazakhstani resources the wallet of Mr. Ablyazov is getting much thinner than it was estimated during the beginning of his infightings with the president. The other thing of importance is corruption among principals of Ablyazov’s infrastructure. Stealing of budget money is typical feature not only among principals of akimat budgets, ministries and national companies. The disease started to be epidemical, capturing also idealess oppositional camp.

If Chair #1 pretendent will find understanding with Mukhtar Ablyazov, then he will get serious enough companion in Almaty. The question is how these personalities, who are by their nature can’t keep word and observe agreements and are unable to celebrate each one’s victory, can possibly agree.

Rakhat Aliev is the third enemy. He is too odious to obtain higher medal place and clearly intellectual invalid. Only the single story with kidnapped bankers, Zholdas Timraliev and Aybas Khasenov, are witnessing about that to the full extent. But precisely by virtue of impossibility to foresee

Potential pretender on chair #1 could go for alliance with Mr. Aliev for the reason of lack of mind, for desperateness (want to sit on it but sees no perspectives from it) or by virtue of overestimation of his abilities. Some could think that he is in competence of managing even a mad man with a grenade in his pocket and a joint pin in the hand.

Concerning OSDP Azat the definition “enemy of the regime” is clearly unsuitable. The management of this organization, which is not played out with Zharmakhan Tuyakbay and Bulat Abilov, has no intensions to make something destructive. They want to get a bigger place near crib, and at least any official acknowledgement. Party is not making anything radical for a long while, pointing itself only by meaningless declarations on informational field.

But for pretender on chair #1 OSDP Azat can appear as a very useful and required resource. If they would agree on a share over the crib, position over the power and congregate on reliable warranties then this organization could easily shot out in many unpredictable combinations.

National patriots are not representing self-sufficient political force by themselves. Both Alga! and OSDP Azat together with the power are “moulding up” both in unity and particularly. After Gaziz Aldamzharov came to management over Communistic Party of Kazakhstan, he too has showed interest to this resource. Every leader and leaderess (and there is no different positions there because everybody there positioning themselves as important persons) of national patriots have their own balance of rational and irrational in heads and behavior, and since that to pick one suitable by price and quality is no a problem. At that we remind that the real political interest in the first stance representing those among others, who are located in Almaty or Astana.

Akezhan Kazhegelding is standing apart. The ex-PM haven’t been on homeland for a long while, and since that he hardly catches its rhythm, but he is certainly a clever and clam, and because of that he is surely have a few variants of actions on one or another case.

Fugitive oligarchs and theirs allies adventures the more it goes farther the more it becomes the subject of mockery. They’re outrun only by their paid friends and allies in Kazakhstan, who regularly make political clownery with bearing out of bodies and 15 minutes hunger strikes, as well as unity of communists with compradors bourgeoisie and other funny things on stolen money.

However, the most funny is the position of such thieves and criminals, who run away abroad and there they bumped into politics. They say they are innocent victims and fighters for democracy. They are something like a fighters with regime. The most outstanding fighters are: Rakhat Aliev, Mukhtar Ablyazov, Akezhan Kazhegeldin. How heroically they had struggled with regime; one of them in National Security Committee of Kazakhstan and in Presidential Security Services; the other one in BTA bank; the next one in Premier Minister’s chair! How do they were suffering and were tormented at their high ranked positions, sitting at their soft chairs of regime!

How stupid and limited person they must be to believe that it’s forgotten in Kazakhstan who they were, what they did and why were on the run? It’s just unbearable stupidity; and it’s not ended with that. The examples of Ablyazov and Aliev show us that there is no depth to fall they could not overcome.

Rakhat Aliev has become a best seller writer and blabber abroad. He wrote a whole book; he makes some records in his live journal from time to time. He published his lurkins, described such moments of his biography he must not speak out loud. Look at sceniс picture of how he went at the meeting wit president having Dictaphone in his pocket! Just only listen to his story about the moment when Austrian policy tried to take away his pistol, to take a pistol of ambassador, how dare they! … Generally, his scribble has data as for investigation, as for psychiatrist.

In the competition at nonsense Mukhtar Ablyazov is winning obviously. It’s understood, he also writes letters with absurd charges and disclosures, which is the subject of publicly laugh at press; but he opened new depths to fall, he pays his paid friends in Kazakhstan, so they can show political activity and opposition struggle with the regime.

Mukhtar Kabulovich! You must know, we do support you totally. Please, give to your paid friends more money! Raise their salaries in ten or better in twenty times!

Ablyazov’s paid friends represented such kind of people who’s wittingly cannot achieve anything except endless talks and political clownery; they are capable to use up and squander any budget. It’s proved they’re quite simply fooling Ablyazov. Though as they spoil Judas money in Kazakhstan, so the part of stolen by Ablyazov is returning back and working at prosperity growth in Kazakhstan. So, let him spend more money at his paid friends, let he will be busy with this idiotic activity. The farther, the less money he has; the less money remains for lawyers and the sooner Ablyazov will reunite with his homeland. It will be against his will, of course.

Look at these people, who are still trying to teach us how to live.

They would have to settle down somewhere and live on the stolen money under a false passport, like all the others dishonest businessmen and officials who fled from Kazakhstan: Talapker Imanbayev (are you alive?) Nurlan Smagulov, Asanali Zhekebaev, Maksat Edenov and others. These fugitives are bursting with ambitions, they climb into politics, act themselves as «oppositionists» and «democrats.»

Now they’re trying to play in revolution on the wave of events which take place in Kyrgyzstan. Mukhtar Ablyazov expressed his opinion as well as another fugitive announced himself as the leader of Atameken party – Erzhan Dosmukhamedov. They think that if they will get to provoke the revolution so they can return to Kazakhstan with triumph.

If we decided to learn something from the Kyrgyz revolution, it must be learned the following lesson: once upon a time there was outstanding thief and criminal in Kyrgyzstan – Ryspek Aktambayev. Once revolutionary winds cheated in his head, he threw his old criminal activity and plunged into politics: he organized the movement, put the yurts on Ala-Too Square, moved out and even won parliamentary elections. To be true he could not sit down at the deputy chair because he was shot and killed while leaving a mosque in the village of Kok-Zhar near Bishkek in May 10, 2006.

So all the attempts to burn revolution from the part of run fugitives and criminals – it’s the new level of stupidity they trying to learn actively. Revolutionary leaders don’t keep vegetarian ways of power struggle, as the world practice shows us. If Ablyazov and Dosmukhametov will burn the revolution they become its victims. Even if they will get somebody to power then their protégé will shoot them with the first opportunity. He will do it and then he will say to people something in the spirit of “Ablyazov, he’ll say, made suicide”, for example, he tied his hands and shot himself with the machine gun in the back.

Such perspective of burning the revolution all fugitives are better to give up and served jail time but then to live in piece; and then the fugitives have an opportunity to live until old age and to see great-grandchildren.

According to Wikipedian article, gadget is some rather small technical mean that executes one or a number of secondary but useful functions. In fine, your favourite back hatchel couldn’t be considered as a gadget since it has no moving parts. A sofa and television are too couldn’t be gadgets because of their sizes, although making you life more pleasant. Sadly to relate, but dear-to-heart coffee machine is also doesn’t fit in the concept – drinking coffee is harming. At the end, even your mobile phone is not a gadget, only if it is latest model of Apple Google Smartbook 6G Neo. Mobiles are too needed, too involved in life of modern men. It comes out that life of an average person is not depending on gadgets, although they are buzz words. So what is it behind this word with French roots? There is another word – fashion.

That’s because gadgets are not fulfilling any vital functions in human life; those are toys in hands of those who want to be rumoured as advanced and stylish; an option to demonstrate wellbeing and to be on the sharp side of newest technologies. And a perfect way to make money on this for makers of these means. The simplest example of gadget is popular player iPod, which for the very first year of its existence seized more than a half of worldwide sales and been sold over 300 millions of copies all over the world. However, is iPod became bestseller thanks to its functionality and technical advantages over competing products? No. This player is not dramatically handy, fragile, discharges quickly and “thinks” for too long; and, what’s more annoying, is constantly requiring additional payments for various services and music downloads. But thanks to subtle developed “hysteria marketing” strategy, started by its company maker, Apple, the name of this device rapidly became common. Just remember how many times recently you heard “audioplayer” word? And iPod?

Official iPod has been revealed on Kazakhstani market in 2008, when Apple official distributor came across here. But curiously enough, it hasn’t gained any special popularity here. The business is not in the reason that listening to music through headphones isn’t popular in Kazakhstan – quite the reverse. And not in a huge price gap between our market compared to abroad ones and even with Russian; and not even in the fact that the niche is too small. To my mind, the main thing affecting sales here is rather weak advertisement and marketing activities on the part of local sellers. The same can be said about many other gadgets. Many could argue with this, bringing hypocrites-cooked “practical consuming mentality of Kazakhs” as an argument, which in essence is no more than consuming obscurantism. The core of the problem is that nobody is trying to explain properly the selling point of their goods to customers. At that, WOW-factor (I would call it a magpie effect) is working perfectly on our market – at least remembering the smartphone boom, which is lasting constantly on our market for almost as long as ten years, from the moment of Nokia 9210 revelation. The youth then, as it is now, were buying fashionable communicators for tow or three monthly salaries living in hunger – money playing its role in fashion, but non major.

The other problem is lack of infrastructure – specialized sales and service centers, official dealers, informational support etc. For instance, the most popular purchase these days among aforementioned smartphones is Apple iPhone 3G. This is very useful device, allowing calling, checking e-mails, surfing the web and listening to music. iPhones are imported in Kazakhstan in railcars from United Emirates, Russia and China. It is grey import. Apple official dealer in Kazakhstan has exclusive rights to sell all the company products, except for telephones. From one side, Apple couldn’t realize that declining a given piece of market pie in Kazakhstan is stupid. From the other side, an implementation of any high-tech project on any market is always an expensive thing to do, but local market potential is unappreciable compared to Russian, not to speak of global. Consequently, promoting its phones here for American company is the same thing here as for a person to try to contract with microbes. Black berry smartphones from Canadian company RIM are too in persistent requisition on gray market, but there is no Kazakhstan in the list of countries on company’s official website, but instead there are Cameroon anв Cape Verde. Not to mention the most recent novelty of the season – radical and dreadful Nexus One communicator, which is been predicted with great future on both sides of the ocean. I doubt that anybody in communicators distributing division has ever heard of Kazakhstan.

One of the major global gadgetry tendencies, which is almost completely avoiding Kazakhstan, worth a special mention – those are electronic books. Useful pads such as Amazon Kindle or Apple iPad, which libraries contain thousands of books and especially ones helpful to students, are completely useless here because of absence of localisation. There are very few books on Russian, not to mention Kazakh. Meanwhile, these useful devices are helpful in finding and reading new books, at that saving housing space. Which can’t be said about compact DVD and HD players, which are, with all their seeming functionality, are rarely leaving apartments, quickly tiring eyes, and because of that are representing rather pointless replacement for full-scale television set.

Another nail in Kazakhstani high-tech market is hammered by sellers themselves, whether they are official or not. Gadgets are being sold here literally as new potatoes on marketplace – you came, you paid a lot of money, you gone. Naturally, with such “advanced” sales technologies newest toys are beyond means of many. It is clear enough that trade has been formed historically that way, however… In Europe aforementioned Blackberries are sold times better than more useful iPhone, despite comparable prices. The thing is in sales technologies – buyer get hand on a phone for free, but has to pay 50 Euro per month for whole year. End price obviously will be higher, but it’s not a bank loan, and some student with small monthly ration can afford such useful thing without onerous obligations. But lending programs for such equipment here have gone nowhere shortly, because at present interest rates even complete idiot can understand price difference between a loan and direct buying.

There is another misfortune with gadgets market – lack of accessories. Suppose you are willing to buy a special bandage for morning runs with fashionable player, or a new case for your communicator, or even a battery for grey imported iPhone. And you’ll be unhappily surprised – it is either non on the market or it costs ransom price. You can, however, order anything by yourself through internet auctions, but a few are going on such risks, because there are no reliable protection mechanisms for transferring money in Kazakhstan.

However, players and smartphones, although on the leaps, are not everything from which gadgets market consists of: sophisticated radio, laptops, watches with additional functions, electronic books, game consoles, USB-toys and even robots. And something called weather sensors. The meaning of latter is measuring temperature, moisture, atmospheric pressure and even weather prediction with help of various probes and built-in barometer. As against Kazgidrometeocenter staff, which are consuming tea and gnawing pencils in agonizing attempts to pint finger in the skies and prophet Divine plans, the accuracy of such devices nowadays is not less than 75%. Other picking up stream gadget market segment are satellite navigation devices. Despite that major players of global market yet have not developed official map packages for Kazakhstan, local topographers are managed to get shots of huge pieces of our land, thankfully for many Kazakhstani automotive travelers, which are now couldn’t imagine life without satellite navigation.

Despite the significant sizes, notebooks (or laptops) are too considered as gadgets. A delusion arises that Kazakhstani market is flooded with these compact computers, but practically business here is not much better than it is with other gadgets. You can buy a notebook within 60-70 grand tenge limit, but it will be only useful for typing purposes. A solid model will cost a fortune – from 1500 USD and more; at that it will be out of date from official sellers. It is almost impossible to find a decent multimedia laptop, which can replace home PC. But the main factor here is price; more accurately, it’s unfairness – a model which costs $1000 on Amazon online shop will cost twice or more here.

A huge piece of market pie was taken by Chinese with their phenomenal ability to instantly create any kinds of fakes of newest gadgets. You want iPhone for cost of minimum wage – you get it. It wouldn’t have access to services, useful Safari browser and friendly interface, and it will fall apart after a month. But it will be precisely the same looks and shape of a true one, and you could show off in front of some rural girls. This is great. But there is one slight problem – a person who follows a simple living rule “do not create yourself problems” would hardly buy such a thing. Gadgets are supposed to ease up your life, not to make it harder. For that reason The Celestial Empire, no matter in which way would you put it, yet is not competitor to quality products, which cost millions to develop.

So, gadgetry market in Kazakhstan is poorly structuralized; mainly for the reason that the lion’s share of the market is grey. And if one would wish to make marketing research to find out its capacity, he will meet at least fail, and wrong data as the main threat. It’ll take years of hard work to improve the situation from all the sides, aimed on all-round development of the market. Furthermore we didn’t mention a correct government policy in imports sector, without which a solid market is impossible. But it is different and very sad topic.

“One cannot underestimate the greed of others”

“Scarface” feature film

Export duty at oil, which impends as the shadow of Hamlet father over western oil companies in Kazakhstan from the very beginning of zero years has begun to transform sharply. Today it’s Domoklov a sward. Terms of its falling at financial garners of oil transnational companies (TNC) depend only from the speed of necessary bureaucratic procedures process in the frames of Russia, Kazakhstan and Byelorussia Custom union.

Any serious TNC working with black oil has its analytical department, intelligence and counter-intelligence as well as development strategy. Modern oil giants only at one step behind sovereign states in global hierarchy. It’s because they don’t have admitted territorial borders, and memberships in United Nations Organization (UNO), embassies and the row of not important for the first sight but very principal attributes. The other way when TNC gather together and a state they deal with, is not very large, consolidated and effective, then situation is changed. Oil giants become stronger than a state.

Kazakhstan has been convinced in truth of the postulate in fullest extent. The idea that it’s time to re-see raw materials contracts was fully publicly sounded in 2001 year. That year oil prices has pretty got up, was put into operation the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and 1580 km of CPC pipelines, functioning independently apart from Russian pipelines (CPC has international ownership at all its length), completely moved out Tengiz black oil at external market. This time expert society started speaking about injustice of the price: within the extraction of the same metric ton of oil state budget in Kazakhstan receives revenues in the three times less than in Malaysia

As luck, terrorists destroyed twin-towers in New-York and campaign against Al Qaeda and the Taliban has started in Afghanistan. The emergence of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) military air base in Kyrgyzstan (Manas airport) coincided with the actions of mladoturks against their patron (mladoturks — the younger generation of managers who were invited to work at the civil services by Nursultan Nazarbayev after the collapse of the USSR).

During presidential elections of 2005 Nursultan Nazarbayev didn’t provoke western oil-men as well. They in turn, by the principal of resources exchange, outbid democratic lobby in their own countries and international structures; after that Zhermakhan Tuyakbay has got to get his 6.5% of votes and eat his humble pie.

When situation was stabilized, state power started to press oil TNC again. In the first place was auditing the fulfillment of signed contracts; whether the associated gas is disposed not burned, sulfur is processed and sold on international markets, investments were made in time… Ministry of Environment at that time showed a completely unfamiliar activity, knocking out oil investors environmental dollars.

Then, following the example of Venezuela, Bolivia and export duties in Russia, Astana again went on the offensive at cash assets of oil companies. This time it has become clear Kazakhstan failed to make mass non-raw production; but the economics raw dollars exploration received its final shape. So, that people to have jobs and wages, there was required an increase in oil revenues in the state budget. Funds were relocated through budget sphere, government contracts on infrastructural projects, welfare activities and so on.

Oil companies had to strain themselves a lot, although they could overbid Ak Orda political party argument of nectar period of business in nineties cannot be extended on the second part of zero years; too much water (and most importantly — oil) has flowed since then. Political risks fell down, infrastructure is well organized, investments returned. It’s sort of the time when oil pie must be divided on the base of new rules.

Though western TNC have mobilized many instruments they objectively have. Diplomatic and business pressure went in usage, as well as the threat of further reduction of investment and credit rating (domestic thieving bankers in a very inopportune moment played a dirty trick to the country). Democratic lobby, recently pressed by oil money, now has got a foundation from that it; and all diverse West world sounded concerns on: human rights, violation of freedom of speech, one-party parliament and other bad and sad things, which earlier were over their attention. Though, citizens were making up calculations on 60 million of tons of exported oil multiplied on duty in 280 US dollar per ton. It is $16,8 billion of added revenues, but it was the air-castle. TNC went on burdensome expenses in wide campaign of counteraction for not to bear those yearly payments from increasing of custom burden.

Second great campaign against TNC was carried out by the best personnel of Ak Orda political party had that time. They took the backstrokes. What it’s worth to Krymbek Kusherbayev, Akim Mangistau region — remains only guess. Oil giants don’t like powerful sovereign countries, so they always try the territory on the tensile strength. Ambitious clannish agashkas in Kazakhstani Caspian holy trust by separating from the other Kazakhstan they sharply increase their revenues. So, president local representatives have to decide the problem of latent separatism also (and sometimes even publicly sounded). Finally realized that its own resources are insufficient, Astana went another way.

New form of Kazakhstan geopolitical functioning is Custom union. All required basic documents are signed and ratified, so the question is in speed of spinup of designed procedures. There are 565 acting contracts on subsoil management in the Republic, 14 of them are in stability regime. That humble number of stable contracts has more than a half of whole oil extracted in Kazakhstan. This group of 14 was given clear explanation that stability of agreements is warranted by Kazakhstani legislation. After all ratification procedures the priority has inter-state agreements such as agreements on Custom union. In common, as Moscow, Astana and Minsk will decide now so as oil taxation will be.

TNC clearly don’t want to lose another 10 billion of US dollars a year; but can they oppose something really effective against the oil axis of the Kremlin – Ak Orda, it doesn’t clear now. Don’t forget, West world become more diverse every day, because modern world actively transforms everyone and everything. Germany interests – main engine of European Union – are lack in Caspian region. Coordination of Moscow and Berlin become more solid. Seas of spilled blood between Russia and Germany in the first half of last century don’t leave another way of foreseeable perspective than to close and comprehensively work together under wide spectrum of problems. All together the Kremlin has unpaid bill to Anglo-Saxons for cheating Russian oil giants in Iraq in 2007—2008 years.

Cannes struggle, when Hannibal defeated Romans, during the second Punic war calls tactic encirclement in military art. The Prussian Victory under the French in 1870 in Sedan is operative encirclement. Stalingrad in period of the Second World War became strategic encirclement. Back to Kazakhstani problem of raw contracts, tactic encirclement of TNC by Astana in early zero years wasn’t happened. Then operative encirclement failed in 2008 year. What will be happened within strategic encirclement of 2010 year we’ll see soon; but it’s very similar to Stalingrad yet.