After General Gennady Kolpakovsky became governor-general of the district of Semirechye (Land of Seven Streams) with Verniy, future Alma-Ata (Almaty) as its administrative centre back in 1867 on behalf of His Imperial Majesty, he ordered to develop what had been mainly a military garisson into a full-fledged “city in a forest”. It is mainly thanks to him that Almaty still looks wonderfully green. He imposed heavy fines on felling trees in and around the town, including a round of flogging in public for recidivists. If his rules would still be in vigour, the backside of Almaty’s former mayor Viktor Khrapunov would definitely look all colours of the rainbow. Vast areas of woodland and orchyards, leading to the near-extinction of Almaty’s renowned apple breeds, have been razed under Khrapunov’s administration — including parts of natural reserves. The purpose: building dream palaces for Kazakhstan’s nouveaux-riches — for a price, of course.

Viktor Khrapunov: squandering natural treasures for the wealth (y) of nations/IResults of judicial investigations concerning former Almaty mayor Viktor Khrapunov funneled into the public domain so far give the perfect impression of a case of white collar crime: the story of people of outstanding education, who enter the highest echelons of society and subsequently fall into a trap known as greed. Communal interests thereby sacrificed for the sake of influential individuals are damage enough in themselves. They distort the business climate, cause capital flight and asset value stripping.

But in the case of Khrapunov, the damage, not to speak of the potential damage that it could trigger, has much larger proportions than just a number of lavish bank accounts. In particular, illegal construction under the shadows of Mount Talgar which dominates the southern skyline of Almaty has cleared entire areas of woodlands and orchyards crucial to keep the soil together. And there is more to this than just tearing down pieces of natural beauty and clean air to breathe. Without this vegetation, the southern neighbourhoods of Almaty are exposed to the eventuality of avalanches and mudflows pouring straight into them, causing mass destruction and threatening the lives of many thousands. Did he ever mean to do so? Given the man’s outstanding erudition, it is indeed hard to believe he would. Nevertheless, he did — wittingly or not.

Viktor Vyacheslavovich Khrapunov was born in 1948 in the village of Pryedgornoye, in the district of Glubokovsky in the northeast of Kazakhstan. During the years following the Second World War, as the USSR had lost substantial ranks of its engineers, doctors and other academic specialist needed to rebuilt the country which had been ravaged by the German invasion, every effort was made to educate the new generation to the highest possible levels. But work forces in the field had also dwindled, and it was thus that young Viktor, after finishing the College of Industry and Technology in Ust-Kamenogorsk, started to work first as a repair mechanic, then as a foreman, and later as senior engineer at the Almaty Thermal Power Station during the day, while studying at the Almaty Institute of Electric Technology in the evening.

Next to his professional career, Viktor Vyacheslavovich made sure to get well-established in party echelons — indispensable in those days to secure any longer-term career to speak of. He first won the position of chairman of the Almaty Lenin district Communist Party Committee, to be promoted little later to the post of first deputy chair of the Almaty City Council. From there, he move on to the position of chairman of the Executive Committee of the City Soviet of People’s Deputies, which stood under the direct authority of the all-Union Supreme Soviet. After a term in office as minister of energy and coal, and later minister of energy and natural resources following Kazakhstan’s independence as of 1991, he obtained the reward he had always seen as the crown on his career: mayor of the city and the city-province of Almaty, which he achieved in 1997 — the same year Almaty lost its position as capital of Kazakhstan to Astana, but with the explicit task to establish Almaty as a dynamic regional centre of business and education.

On arrival, Khrapunov entered a situation in which private initiative was the key word to every solution to every problem. Kazakhstan had only started to recover from a four-year-long economic depression through drastic economic reforms which flung all doors wide open to private enterprise to which virtually no restrictions were imposed. This, as in many other parts of the former Soviet Union, led to state assets put on sale for next to nothing to anyone who even remotely pretended to redevelop them into viable commercial assets. Khrapunov found himself virtually in charge of that process, and clearly decided that just supervising it would be little beneficial, whereas participating in it at the same time looked extremely attractive. Moreover, at that stage, there was little taboo for such conflicts of interest.

Khrapunov’s main instrument to stash his gains was, and still is, a company called VILED International Unlimited. Numerous sites around town were bought by it that had no building permits and therefore looked of little value. He then ordered to issue building permits for them, which overnight multiplied their property value, and subsequently started offering them to the fortunate classes of Almaty, many of which had gathered their fortunes in pretty much similarly dodgy manners. Among Khrapunov’s clients were names such as Rakhat Aliyev, banker, President’s son-in-law and head of the National Security Council, using methods reminding one of the sweet old days of Lavrentiy Beria and thereby hard to say no to. As for Viktor Khrapunov, he promoted his business by withholding almost all outdoor advertising on strategic locations in and around Almaty to anyone but an advertising agency affiliated with VILED, the parent company president of which was Khrapunov’s wife Leila Kalybekovna. In all, at least 16 prime sites have been allocated in closed procedures circumventing all open bidding requirements in this manner.

Some of these larger objects appropriated by the Khrapunovs included a plaza on the corner of Gogolya and Panfilova Streets, apartment and shopping space blocks on Furmanova Street Dostyk Avenue, both on the edges of the uppity business neighbourhood of Samal-2. For all 12 blocks identified as falling under VILED’s umbrella, together no more than the equivalent of 60 million US dollar was allegedly paid — at least this is what Khrapunov was to claim later — but in any case never found back in any budget in the city administration where the sums for the purchases should have been registered.

Further uphill, property, including parts of protected natural zones, were bought up by VILED and affiliated firms for even more hilarious sums. Thus, a forest site named Wood Fairy Tale and another one known as Oak Grove were purchased by a company called Gulmira Ltd., run by one of the Krapunov pair’s associates by the name of Shebityevov and believed to be financially dependent on VILED, for the negligible amounts of 1.8 and 2.1 million tenge respectively. Public property has also been sold illegally to another one among Khrapunov’s shell firms called Phoenix Unlimited, run by a certain G. Mukashev, who in particular obtained blue-chip locations with permission to demolish the kindergardens, pensioners’ homes and other social facilities located on them, with the aim to build commercial glamour objects on them.

What made Viktor Khrapunov look more common than special at the time was that the former Soviet Union was awash with such practices. Some of them, operating on larger scales, pursued their goals even more ruthlessly judging by the trail of blood that many an oligarch has left behind him. In Russia and Ukraine, they by and large acted on their own — though with a string of cronies within official institutions some of whom were rewarded with careers but most of whom ended up with no more than a handsome bribe. The difference with Kazakhstan is that oligarch schemes have often been heavily embedded in family relations, and that influential clans play a key role in post-Soviet business empires’ development. This also at least in part could explain the fact that whereas Russia’s oligarchs work in “mute solidarity” and try to avoid confrontations between each other, quite some leading business clans in Kazakhstan seem to be at each other’s throats.

As for Khrapunov and family, the Almaty venture which had started shortly after his appointment in 2002, was to end rather abruptly in early 2007 as Viktor Vyacheslavovich was appointed minister of emergencies and called to Astana. He held the post for less than a year, when he was put in place as governor of the Pavlodar province in the northeast of the country. Some have suggested the fact that he was an ethnic Russian, though considered loyalist for a long time, who was likely to maintain tense relations with the upper circles in Almaty while in the northeast, where ethnic Russians form a majority, he would function better. This “smooth theory”, however, was to be belied two years later, with the family flying head-over-heels to a new home and a new life in Switzerland. (to be continued)

A result is not what has been harvested but what was seeded

Robert Lewis Stevenson

A year of tectonic shifts – that’s how year 2010 can be described in the newest history of Kazakhstan. In difference to volcanic eruption a tectonic shift is not so graphic; instead the results of such a process are far enduring and massive than Eyjafjallajokull volcano on civil flights in Europe.

The leader of the nation

Nursultan Nazarbayev stays unreachable to any political opponents inside Kazakhstan. Massive amounts of compromising information on persons of his surrounding and figures in the opposition have had a paradoxical effect. Vivid stamp of Yermukhamet Yertisbayev known as “president’s nightingale” that the present head of the state has no alternative suddenly became filled with reason for common people.

With help of the internet and other mass-media, various strata of society managed to assure that the republic literally can’t be left on anyone and devolved to nobody. All people within power are either furtive or hot-headed ambitious, whereas adequacy and frugality are not within their features at all. We would lower those minions of fortune among numbers of fools, who don’t have enough reason to understand even that the black caviar and Louis XIV cognac can be consumed until the present model of the state is holding itself on a rod personified in president Nazarbayev.

The efficiency, with which the law “On the first president – the leader of the nation” was established and lack of protests which accompanied this process is saying about a few things in one. Nobody is being disturbed with it, for the numbers of reflex intelligence are low. There are much more of those “cultural figures”, who are ready to write some ode to Nursultan Nazarbayev in hope to get a flat in Astana or a post by onomastic commission in some region.

The second moment is witnessing: those who have something to lose are still largely present in Kazakhstan. Because of the absence of a public official who can assure compatriots faith in the fact that a change of power would go without cataclysms the people are agreed that the current president would exercise powers as long as he can. The proposition from Eastern Kazakhstan about referendum with purpose of prolongation of latitudes is also from the same opera. A massive of people have nothing against that the phase of big infighting for power would be moved at least to the year 2020

Managerial default of SamrukKazyna

SamrukKazyna National Wellbeing Fund can now be renamed into National Wealth Dissipation Fund Seven hands in Treasury. Even for resources based economy with constant flow of oil dollars and profits from other types of strategic resources, SamrukKazyna appears to be too expensive toy for its uselessness.

There are no any noticeable projects financed by this development institute which are worth mentioning. The main results of its activities are sleek and well-fed officials, around hundred of grown-rich trusted businessmen and around a thousand of those who very well improved their financial stance. But the thing is that Samruk Kazyna was established for the purposes of developing whole country and its economy. The role of economical emergency brake which is successfully performed by the Foundation, was never registered or regulated. It appears that SamrukKazyna is carrying this assignment by its own initiative instead of executing what was its purpose of activities.

In 2010 there was a shift from quantity to quality changes in SamrukKazyna, Damu and other organizations, which can be called development institutes only jokingly. Businessmen, journalists and society have assured themselves that those monsters are literally eating colossal resources but without any actual help. Now what’s left is only waiting for political reasons can be made out of the situation.

The black Kyzyl-Agash

The tragedy in Kyzyl-Agash village of Almaty region is more than an accident. Here, like in a weak chain section, collided corruption privatization of strategic objects, dereliction and incompetence of bodies of governmental organizations on places and impossibility of civilians to be listened to. For a long time even certain number of victims couldn’t be named, since if a whole family died because of dam breakage, then there were nobody left to make statement about injured.

Kyzyl-Agash showed that infrastructural objects built in USSR times can’t stay forever. It is necessary to make constant monitoring of their condition, to conduct maintenance and modernistaion, thus to find investments. Also nobody can reject the importance of competent servicing and qualified exploitation. The dam is not only a thing of profit but also an object of high dangers and risks. To lose its sight from governmental bodies is a crime.

Human victims have uncovered another Achilles’ heel of governmental management such as the lack of due inter-institutional cooperation. Every single governmental structure is trying to take advantages over itself with moving its responsibilities on some other in the same time. Whereas all of these are called power, and from that it’s always required.

Political tsetse fly

On the background of runaway banker Ablyazovthe other runaway, Rakhat Aliev (Shodiev), ex-son-in-law of the president of the country, has somewhat lost. The reason is that mister Aliev has money only on wiretaps of phone calls of VIP persons and significant figures of Kazakh political field, whereas resources of Mukhtar Ablyazov are much better diversified. This includes unregistered Alga political party, Respublica media holding, NGO network financed by his channels, focused manipulation of key personalities which are being listened by one or another part of society.

As the result, Ablyazov managed to establish serious problems of trendy kind for the acting political regime. His omnivorous behave, when there are tools such as returning of khan Kenesary’s head to groups of national patriots, used to destabilize situation, have forced the power to implement a certain mobilization of its followers and resources. Regular means of propaganda and punitive body have not been enough for the runaway oligarch in 2010.

Customs union or a knee of the president

Living in global world is forcing Astana to search for real strategic aliases. 2010 appeared to be important in relation with Kazakhstan’s certainty with its main vector. In terms of wind streamline its called North, and in political coordinates it’s called Russia.

The origin of elections is more than obvious. Astana is powerless against such players as China; to build relationships with such countries of the region as Uzbekistan is impossible (they have different value systems), and it’s possible to play big games on one’s own in modern world is a domain of only powerful countries, to which average Kazakhstan couldn’t be objectively related.

The customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus is not liked by zealots of sovereignty, whose overviews ending on collecting tolls from car owners who passing Korday mountain pass. Nursultan Nazarbayev either doesn’t want or not able to be engaged in controversy with then, since their brains couldn’t be replaced in those people’ heads. That’s why the process of forming up customs union and Eurasian economic union is implemented with directive measures. Those who so poor in mind to realize the reality of modern world will be broken on president’s knee. They can’t do anything actual in response, and hysteric people can’t bother anyone in big politics.

The first counter-strike of Shala on Nagyz

The outgoing year appeared to be the first when Shala-Kazakhs started to make informational counter-strikes on Nagyz-Kazakhs. In distant times Nagyz-Kazakhs have actually offended their compatriots in Mankurtism and betrayal of spiritual roots almost unpunished. In 2010 the patience has been exhausted and in response the speeches about intellectual inferiority of Nagyz, from which everything else is following.

Curiously enough, but the initial serious attempt of Shala-Kazakhs to call a spade a spade had taken positive effect. Nagyz-Kazakhs have lowered down their claims in Russian-spoken informational field, and Kazakh-speaking media is not especially bothering Shala-Kazakhs since it is existing in parallel universe. From the other side, there are less contacts in public bottleneck between two massive reservoirs of Kazakh ethnicity, which couldn’t be called positive thing.

The stability of growing prices

The prices and tariffs of monopolists were growing all year, going ahead of income increases of the million. As the result, 2010 has made it into social-economical history of the country as time of decrease of resource abilities of so-called average Kazakh. The further commercialization of social sector (schools, hospitals, art circles, sport sections) has been worsening overall picture even more.

The economy of the republic stays extremely monopolized in both industrial and territorial profiles. This establishes favourable conditions for policies known as maximization of income. Along with corruption content (customs, traffic police, officials from licensing, control and regulatory bodies) it creates the highest additional expenses for sales people, which are written off from consumers’ wallets.

A thinned nerves of elite

Rivaling power-financial groups were continuing to sort out relationships between each other for the whole year. For the number of participants this has been ended with imprisonment. The pressure of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s authority is restraining elite from starting a full-scale war of extermination (for when battles are for power there are no prisoners of war taken), but psychologically they are ready to deal with each other to find a winner. They are simply frightened to do it ahead of time or conversely to be late, missing the first hit of enemies. As the result they constantly displaying power in front of each other and already can’t determine the line themselves, below which an intension transforms into full-scale challenge and instigating war.

The confrontation of power-financial groups has already gained such predetermined direction and intertia that more and more experts are separating this factor as the most explosive for overall stability of political system. If earlier the massive of observers were uniting in opinion that wars of elite wouldn’t slop over the boarders of establishment and political class, then in 2010 more and more experts are predicting stir with a vast number of participants. If only the observable trend would not be lead to break point.

Recently a tip-off has come to General’s Prosecutor Office in Swtzerland about Timur Kulibaev, a citizen of Kazakhstan, in which he’s been accused in corruption and money structuring. Certain Kazakh oppositionists, suddenly become fans of Swiss justice, are hoping that fair and impartial Swiss prosecutors will do the job and bring Kulibayev to justice (?).

2010/12/26 However, the recent years’ events have honeycombed the faith in fairness of Swiss justice. And also that Swiss law-protecting system is the most fair and effective. Alas, it is also been demolished by corruption and political interests, especially in loud and serious affairs. Even Swiss system of public justice is far away from definition of embodiment of justice, especially in deeds closely related to politics. The case of Swiss citizen Carla del Ponte, which was the chief prosecutor of UN International Tribunal on Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Before that she was General Prosecutor of Switzerland and on that basis has earned fame of non-compromise fight against bribery (she even investigated the case of corruption in surrounding of Russian President Boris Yeltzin), the case of Mabetex company, founded by Albanian entrepreneurs), with white-washing funds, drugs traffic and organized crime.

To be honest, her deeds on the post of UN General Prosecutor weren’t successful. She never could sort out the bloody massacre in Rwanda in 1994, when from 500, 000 up to one million people were murdered only in a hundred days. After that failure Karla del Ponte had been involved with Yugoslavia, where participants of violent civil war also weren’t bonded by the rules of engagement. But even there she missed hugely. The main suspect – Slobodan Miloshevich despite his death in jail wasn’t accounted guilty. The international tribunal had never managed to resolve extradition of Ratko Mladich and Radovan Karadzich from Serbia. The long process has ended with resignation of Chief Prosecutro, and since 2007 Karla del Ponte is holding peaceful appointment of Swiss Federation Ambassador in Argentina.

Now though career of iron signora has teeter. After publication of book about her investigations, her meetings with Khashim Tachi, leader of Kosovo Albanians, have popped up. He was too ferocious bad man, who at the moment of meeting Karla del Ponte was under international trial for year, being accused with multiple crimes such as illegal traffic, arms and drugs trade, organizing kidnapping and illegal trade of human organs. There now, the iron signora, simply an incarnation of justice, has descended to handshake with a guy covered in blood. More to that, she clearly realized what Albanians were doing, but started to talk about it only in 2008, after her resign.

Not only with him, however. In 2002 she cconducted a meeting with Ahmed Zakayev, former Chechen brigadier-general, minister of international affairs of Chechen Republic of Ichkeriya, accused by Russia in establishing of illegal armed forces, terrorism and murders of prisoners of war. In 2003 he received status of political refugee in Great Britain.

In 2010 UN International Tribunal on Yugoslavia has started case against... Karla del Ponte herself for tampering with witness, manipulation of testimonies and attempts to tamper with witnesses. Concerning a number of witnesses some truly SS methods were applied: intimidation and sleep deprivation. There are two more prosecutors of tribunal have fell in investigation. It is a serious shift of the case. It is rarely a thing that former General Prosecutor of Switzerland and General Prosecutor of UN International Tribunal have been investigated. It drops a very big spot on all of Swiss system of public justice.

Of course one may talk that Karla del Ponte became a victim of big politics and she was involved in political games around Yugoslavia against her will. But the iron signora had reputation of adamant fighter against international organized crime, has been highly qualified lawyer and had all the opportunities to avoid all the traps of that big politics in Yugoslavian conflict. She, however, as a matter of fact, been in possession of Kosovo Albanians, which made no less crimes that the rest of sides in civil massacre in Yugoslavia and, supposedly did it quite cold blooded. It turns out that the big politics can quite easily stray from faithful path even the most adamant fighters against organized crime.

There are lots of similar examples can be put in. In February 2010 Swiss High Court declined to extradite former Haitian dictator Jean-Claude Duvaliet for 7 million Swiss francs to Republic of Haiti. The court had referred to 15 year term of limitation for the crimes of Duvaliet, which expired in 2001. The judgment was announced a few hours earlier before disastrous earthquake in Haiti.

Switzerland also protects its recently acquired citizen Erwin Johann Sperisen Vernon. This chap, present holder of Swiss, American and Guatemala passports, was chief of Guatemala National Police and been accused by the government of Guatemala for violence and murders of peasants in Nueva Linda village. By the way, it is worth questioning how the chief of Guatemala police managed to get Swiss passport avoiding all quite strict laws. Judging that this is not the only example (to recall for instance Victor Khrapunov), it can be suggested that issuing Swiss passports for wealthy criminals from all over the world in that country is greatly accepted practice.

In June 2010 Swiss court has released on bail of 100, 000 CHF Israeli citizen Gy Janeli, accused in steal of diamonds for 2 million francs. The flavor of the moment is that the court initially required 500, 000 CHF, but because the thief, convicted in participation in robbery by DNA sample, didn’t have that amount of money, the court simply made a 80% discount for him.

In the middle of 2009 the big trial on subject of cigarette mafia, accused in illegal trafficking of cigarettes for 1 billion CHF, has ended. It was serious contraband of cigarettes in Italy connected with Italian mafia, and Italian army managed to demolish this system only after a series of overnight marine battles with smugglers. The case contained 900 volumes of information, however two of smugglers have got conditional sentence, and other two were got absolutory sentences altogether. Among those acquitted is Franko della Torre, who already been under investigation and also acquitted by American justice in the case of selling heroin. The acquitted chaps had got back their fair earned money – around 100 million Swiss francs and even confiscated Porsche.

Finally it’s worth to remind you about Mabetex case, in which iron signora participated. One of the central accused people, Pavel Borodin, has also been freed homewards in 2001 after paying pledge of 5 million francs. In 2002 the case was closed and Borodin had his money back. In 1996 the Swiss court had declared Sergey Mikhailov known under nickname Mikhas and one of the leaders of Solntsevskaya not guilty.

On the other hand the Swiss court is cruel and ruthless on criminals with no money. In 2000 in Switzerland a life sentence has been put in concerning dangerous special criminals. And now please take your seats: Switzer Michael A. sentenced for murdering a prostitute in 2008 for 20 years in jail, after serving punishment must pass through expertise, after which he could be send to forced treatment for yet another 10 years. By all means that person not only once being jailed for sexual assaults is well deserved the rough punishment. But in light of the rest of processes in Switzerland it can be said that if he only had about million CHF, then he would walk out easily. The Swiss legislation is amazingly mild on criminals covered in blood if they have money to buy freedom off.

This is a tradition of Swiss business. Profitable business on blood was made as early as during Second World War. The Nazis transferred 75% of gold stolen in Europe in Switzerland, including golden teeth which Nazis beat out of Jews’ mouths in concentration camps in exchange of Swiss francs, on which Germany bought crude materials to continue the war. For the sake of this business there was a law adopted in 1934, according to which disclosures of information on personality of depositor is considered to be crime. In 1984 73% of the Swiss have voted against restrictions of this law on referendum. Only under powerful pressure Switzerland has recently agreed to some exemptions from those laws, which protecting bloody money from all over the world.

Thus, there is no trust whosoever in honesty and justice of Swiss jurisdiction. Multiple examples showed that a court sentence in such loud cases is predetermined by money: legal fees and amounts of guarantee. In such a way some Kazakhstani citizens in search of justice have referred the wrong address. Nothing can pop out of this blackmail even in case if Kulibayev was really guilty in violations of all the articles of Swiss criminal code. It is strange that Ablyazov has organized this blackmail. Who can know better about that feature of Swiss legislation – marketed charity to criminals? His relative Victor Khrapunov got both passport and protection for the money, and no doubt he will buy off from recently started investigation. It is a bizarre naivety for such a hard-headed businessman. However, the other intent can be suspected here – denunciation in Swiss court is more aimed on propaganda profits… There no point to appeal to Americans, all the more so to British courts.

A rarity in our times

It is believed that the idea of the end of the world comes from warped superstition, while I increasingly see it as the only explanation for what is going on.

The Middle East, where the parties cannot make peace because of the ambitions of those who cannot consider the possibility of selling their territory, is a good example.

What does the United States have to offer? The signing of a peace treaty, a technical protocol, and it is a “condition sine qua non” that any talks must end in the signing of a treaty. The price of the peace is of secondary importance.

However, people do not want peace at any cost. They are ready to live in the state of war if this war makes them more secure compared to peace with an enemy they do not trust.

However, not everyone craves peace – some people desire victory.

What else is fundamental for the West, besides the invariable “peace”? Institutional democracy.

Multi-party elections have been held in Iraq and Afghanistan, but they did not become a historic milestone. The local elites played a game with the U.S. Administration – by its own rules and at its own expense. In fact, real politics still rests on clan and tribal divisions and is heavily influenced by elders. The most important thing is that despite the multi-party elections that have been held society failed to become liberal. The Afghan Taliban executed people for their religious beliefs, and this practice lives on under Mr. Karzai.

Francois Duvalier was elected at a general election, while Pol Pot was not. Still, is there a big difference between their regimes?

Democratic elections alone are not what former authoritarian states need for development. If Western politicians really want to contribute to their self-determination and development, but not to rear irresponsible native elites who boost incompetence, corruption and crime, they should decide between civilization and its total absence.

It may seem that the idea of democratic elections was historically discredited by the German Nazis, but they still live on, which means one thing for me: the West's policy is losing its sense.

What is the use for the West of Uzbekistan being recognized as an authoritarian regime while Turkey is seen as a ready candidate for EU membership? Is it just because Islam Karimov does not play ar free elections and Recep Tayyip Erdogan does (because he will be in a winning position playing this game)?

Based only on values, one must admit that with all his brutal security officials and lackeys Karimov is much closer to the strategic interests of civilization than Erdogan. Karimov made his choice before 9/11 and has been faithful to it ever since, while Erdogan is just a gentlemanlike advocate of  violence.

Democracy as a procedure and democracy as a value are not the same thing.

Yes, Karimov is a dictator, but Western allies are busy supporting his enthusiastic opponents instead of modernizing and encouraging the cultural growth of his system, and if these opponents come to power, it is the Taliban that will gain real power. It is because the political opposition in most Central Asian countries consists of a dozen elderly scholars who think their efforts and talents are underestimated, or hundreds of brainless drug dealers, or thousands of would-be Taliban hangmen. I know what I’m talking about – more than many others.

I lead a political party myself and along with my supporters have a vital interest in a transparent electoral system. We consider it important to curb the powers of the president and to introduce a parliamentary republic with the executive government formed by the parliamentary majority and working under the daily control of the public. Nonetheless, these fundamental aspects are still secondary against the background of national culture and human needs. If the balance shifted in favour of those who choose freedom and development, political techniques would inevitably improve. It is pointless improving them in an uncertain society.

The political regimes in Central Asia were not established by dictators – they are fragments of the collapsed authoritarian Soviet system, and they simply have not had have a chance to become anything different. There was a lack of qualified managers in the USSR and an abundance of nations with amputated political will. Similarly to others, the peoples of Central Asia suffered a lot from the communists, and these days some of them are not considered duly democratic, while others simply do not want to be.

This year my country – Kazakhstan – chairs the OSCE. It is very symbolic for us as this underlines our strategic European choice – the choice of competitive civilization, which unites various and diverse cultures and is grounded in diversity, freedom and development.

I stress again that the presence of democracy signs is not of paramount importance, it is much more important when the need for democracy is perceived by a nation and a civil society emerges in it. I believe Kazakhstan is on the right path in this sense, because it is obvious that Kazakhstan has the necessary potential of diversity and cultural interest in the outside world, which will not allow us to build a nation of hermits who reject everything around them.

Not all of our elite can be described as “advanced”, but its younger elements are advanced and their historical priority is obvious. We can and even must criticize the President inside the country, but his foreign policy strategy seems to me to be the best for the conditions under which he began his rule. The fact that he often follows recommendations and promotes former Soviet functionaries is unacceptable to us, albeit understandable. We see options which we think to be best but see no professional politicians who can implement them right now.

Nazarbayev has become the symbol of many positive trends. He has virtually set Kazakhstan up like a big testing ground. Deciding on a progressive economic programme, he laid the basis for forming an independent class of those who are willing to build their own lives rather than rely on public subsidies. He has established a system for training young professionals abroad and declared competitiveness to be the main requirement of the time, thus pushing the country further from the deadlock of Turkmenistan, Cuba or North Korea. He has created a new capital which was conceived to become the engine which pulls the ambitiously developing country along. He has suggested that new know-how for solving global religious conflicts be developed.

If Western countries go on forming their opinion of Kazakhstan on the basis of sporadic reports of corruption and not very funny comedies, this will undermine our valuable cooperation and make the positions of those who fundamentally oppose it much stronger.

This valuable cooperation must not consist of supporting the marginal opposition, whose ultimate aim is chaos and which continuously incites clashes between the rich and the poor, but of opening high-standard English language schools, arranging courses for film makers and organizing student and youth exchanges instead. I am convinced that there are few countries which so badly need the experience and knowledge of the outer world and which so sincerely and passionately long for learning and development as Kazakhstan.

The Kazakh National Congerss has decided for itself that it wants to become a motivating force for those who are romantically fascinated by the opportunities of life in am open world and those who only prefer it from a pragmatic point of view. To convince the latter is no less important than to inspire the former. This precludes the possibility of authoritarian development – “it is not profitable to be a cannibal” – and creates the necessary preconditions for a gradual reformation of the country and its final break with its Soviet past.

Adil Toiganbayev

Politician, the leader of the party the Kazakhstan National Congress.

Born on October, 12, 1966 in Alma-Ata, a Kazakh national, he is a descendant of Aytkesh Toiganbayev, a famous journalist and public activist.

In 1989 Toiganbayev graduated from Bauman higher technical school in Moscow where he got a diploma of mechanics engineer; and later on continued education in London. He is an MA in economics, speaks English.

Once a businessman Adil Toiganbayev these days is actively involved in public activities, organizing the party. He is the head of the Expert centre for national strategy (Almaty, Kazakhstan).

Toiganbayev is married to Bermet, a daughter of Askar Akayev, the first President of Kyrgyzstan, brings up two children.

Toiganbayev is the author of a series of articles in domestic and foreign media and the books: “Technology of the dream” (2008г), “Daily democracy” (2010).

Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belorussia, which turned into the latest Kazakh conspiracy-smelling cliché in local press, is moving forwards, stumbling confidently. It seems that the fourth power, absolutely lacking of any political influence, has stopped attempts to sort out/impact the blatant wrongness of this whole invention, smugly represented as an “economical alliance of the future” and scarcely a salvation of our oil-spilled economy. Journos’ attempts to establish a resemblance of logical links within participant states’ advantages and interests of their people, are, strictly speaking, failed. However, those customs “vicissitudes” are surely a nuisance to inquisitive readers: dull interest to this topic is easily explainable and is in the fact that the effects of this Union would be hardly feelable to people now and in the closest time – too different are spreads of particular political figures, too unfair is customs pie cutting, too fresh are the memories of Perestroyka’s bastard child – the CIS. As it is, there are much more factors against the Customs Union, and they are much more solid than what’s said above. However, we’re going to talk about one of the specific and the most visible effect of CU on us, people. About cars.

The attention to this sector is explained by the fact, that the automobile is proverbially clear, quite expensive and particularly personal property – in many cases the second by significance after an apartment. Besides, it has quality that no other affordable goods can offer – it can give a freedom of unrestricted mobility. The one which is usually deprived firstly from convicts. That’s why the notorious Kazakh mentality, normally suffering any moral violence upon itself, is boiling up as soon as business concern cars. It’s hard to recall any similar event such as mass strike on Almaty New Square, when rumours about ban on exploitation of right-hand drive cars. Then the car owners showed their fangs to state authorities and exposed themselves as a political force to be left alone. Even hardly beloved Vladimir Shkolnik has been softening his formulae to ban the import; which is rather menaningless and groundless measure as such as exploitation ban.

The CU puts the same problem, but from a different, less sensitive angle: we’ve been offered to change our cars on new ones complying with the rules of the game among trinity of its participants. Guess no one must be explained that on this field Russia gets an absolute pie from the Union. Amidst 30-35% growth on customs processing rates of cars imported from EU and US, the cars made within CU (formally complying to several requirements which will be described below) is actually equal to bread crusts, it is natural that carefully calculating would lean to the second option. In such a contingency two of this market’s sectors will blow out – used cars and new ones built outside CU and their dealers; and in their turn two new ones (which are almost one) will be established – cheap Russian made cars and new dealers. Let’s have a closer look on each of these issues and what they’d brought.

On common people side

In recent years the most favourite car over the aftermarket wasn’t Mazda 626, as many think, and not Mercedes W124 or Opel Vectra. It was Toyota Land Cruiser – huge and untidy off-roader so dear to hearts of road savage. Mainly it has been imported from US, which is basically the country it was designed for. The process of making money out of Land Cruisers is virtually the same as for any other car if a bit more advantageous – a cheapest option is bought (the condition doesn’t play major role), moved to Kazakhstan, a little prepped and sold. For example, you can buy one ten-year old in the States for $9-10 grand; transportation costs less than two; customs rate was around 7-8 thousand dollars. As the result the price for it in Kazakhstan is around 18-20 thousand dollars with prices for an ultimate purchaser exceeding $30 grand in much arguable condition. The cream de la cream for more or less expensive cars is varying depending on brand, year, colour and other less important factors. This what it was like before Customs Union.

Now then the customs rate can be two-three times more than a car’s initial price, which is unsuitable in any case whether for grey dealers or buyers. Is it bad? Theoretically no – the flow of old unsafe gear into the country is much lower, less headaches and dangers for the final buyers. Concerning CO2 rates and threats to the environment, which is usually the main point of our narrow-minded authorities, then almost all of now-imported cars are complying to two similar standards – LEV-ULEV-LEV II for American market since ’94 and Euro 2-3-4 for European since 1996, thus approved by law as safe. At that, what’s the point of Kazakh legislation to compel EU specifications, but absolutely not in the field of rights and freedom of its citizens, as OSCE regulations appointing.

Aside from that, it limits and/or vanquishes question of choice for the widest category of people. For instance, the lack of qualification forces very many citizens to be self-employed in cabbing. Or to small farmers to carry their hand-grown products to markets. Strictly speaking – for people that don’t use internet. With small cars in $3-7 thousand built in 1990—2000 on their agenda. CU is leaving them outboard, forcing to buy cars for the same money, but making choice over what’s left on the market. As the result, the constantly renewing cars population, which were coming to us in still-good condition will change to population of dying and really polluting oil-burners.

And what’s funny – the state in its sole customs blast is continuously repeating its well-learned mantra – “we are on common people side”, but in this case simply throwing the least socially protected social layer over the board. Their profits are obviously aren’t able to pay treasury, but making no harm either as there’s no one to give them a job. Basically the same but in lesser degree is concerning the social brew, which are local authoritative dreamers like to call middle class.

Business support

The problems which are expected to bring much troubles to local car dealership along with their assets are not so vital but covered in press much more widely. Especially wide in those which have nothing against making some money, telling people how Kazakh business is suffering. Thus, the same customs rates (up 20% from 10%) concerning them as well.

Let’s imagine a simple, highly approximate situation. The price of customs processed basic Toyota Camry for a dealer before Customs Union was $24 to $26 thousand with end price around $30, 000. Now though the price will go up to around $33,000 for a dealer, who must manage to get at least minimal profit. As the result the end price for the customer will grow up by $4-5,000. Moreover that the difference is, mildly speaking, huge, but also it will feature customers’ shock, which can stop buying anything at all in the end. As many authorities considering, it will solve another problem as well – as dealers’ excess profits gone the market will become fair and transparent. The more so that particular dealers should have been shot up for their piggish low quality of service. But.

Not only dealers are making money. Some sell oil and natural resources with impunity, other fairly pushing dope to youth. Both will not listen of splits less than 300%. On this background dealer’s 20% of profit looks ridiculous. Do you know how much a common 45 tenge pack of noodles costs to a Chinese person to make, import and process and deliver, completely legally? 17 tenge no less, as at November 2010. How’s that hanging on to you?

The “white” dealers have made attempts to pluses of their existence – creating and organizing working places, tax payments, and the necessity of developing the market. The state’s position is simple – “hell no, if you couldn’t manage it, then your place will be taken”. And if you don’t like this than build factories yourself. And we’ll support you as luxuriously as we support all the rest of domestic producers.

Back to the future

These days words “Russian” and “manufacturer” by no means should be perceived as synonymous of maker of ancient and horrible beasts like Ladas. Opposite, all the major players from all over the world are placing their production lines today in Russia. So Kazakh consumers shouldn’t be worry about anything. The question of car import in Kazakhstan has been solved long ago, and 21 contenders, which can proudly supply locals, were already chosen. The requirements are simple – one must make at least 25,000 pieces per year, place a part of production within CU and to assemble cars from more than one piece. The thing is that on Russian territory there are no production lines except for notorious soviet era factories – all cars are being imported in Russia and assembled from nodes and components, then sold. In this case — to us. Belorussia is buying only Russian vehicles under the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

Theoretically everything is fine – we get new, specially prepared and adjusted automobiles for such brands as Toyota, VW, Renault, Chevrolet, Ford, Fiat and other by lower prices than it was before. Given that such things as package, options, different engines are gone. All the advantages to us are covering the lower quality of assembly and the fact that the majority of those cars are nothing else but renewed but off-market models of at least 20th century and not complying with our new emission standards.

There are only a few “but”. All these factories except for our awkward “Asia Auto” and no less useless but a bit more successful Belarusian JV ZAO UNISON, are located in Russia. Ergo, the bigger share of money paid by us will quietly float to Russian and used for the good of theirs, not ours, economy. Anв our money is really needed to Russians since their market capacity, given its size, wouldn’t be harmed by another 2-3% of gross volume. Even looking at the figures, than 3% of market growth at one and a half million units sold for two quarters of 2010, compared with our pitiful 20% and around 5,000 units.

Well and good. But quality of service will grow in closest times, since local dealers, which have virtually no protective mechanisms from their Russian colleagues, both legally and professionally, will be simply eaten by the latter. Since nothing is regulating or preventing, and the government even supports Russian expansion on our market. What’s the difference who’s paying taxes. Much more competitive northern neighbours will expanding and developing our market without leaving a chance to local dark and narrow business.

There’s no need to think and calculate to understand that after CU coming in full power, the same destiny awaits for many other sectors of our economy. I finely understand that my optimistic views on Customs Union and some of cheerful irony wouldn’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but look at it yourself. Kazakhstan could be selling us as well, so difficult and cheap asset, to so close and so dear Russia, and become the biggest and most powerful hydrocarbons operator in the world. What an achievement that would be!

Adil Toyganbaev, the leader of the Kazakh National Congress, on the Decree of the Provisional Government of Kyrgyzstan:

— In my opinion, this decision is inappropriate and shameless. To oppose the Akayev period and point out some of his negative things is the moral right of the authorities taking a position in the country for the welfare of its people. Today, even the opponents of the first president cannot say that the situation in the country has improved. These people, under whom the country fell into mass killings and burning people alive, have no right to talk about violence in the past. They should look at themselves first and foremost. There is a difference between the authorities suppressing Osh and losing it. No, they have no right to judge the actions of other, civilized, legitimate and answerable to history, presidents.

Askar Akayevich made mistakes because he is only human. Not in the Akayev period we are discussing now, though objectively in today's Kyrgyzstan the years of his rule are already seen as a golden age. We are talking of people who have embezzled legislative, executive and judicial authority and are now laying claim to the court of history. Competent lawyers have indicated to them that the content of the decree is legally illiterate and the manner of its adoption is illegal. It is an absolute outrage.

They have not saved the country from sinking back into the Middle Ages. Today they need to at least want to save it from sliding back to a primitive communal system and provide their people with water, bread and warmth, instead of which they are waging war on Askar Akayev. This is a frank admission that they cannot cope with the problems facing them and the best they can do is explain that their problems were created by others. Against the backdrop of national economic collapse under Akayev, it is admittedly, very handy to remember this.

This is the behaviour of irresponsible, cowardly people. They are ready to look pathetic — because you know they see that the world community and Russia do not perceive their legislative zeal. Russia actually acted as the negotiating party, which defined how AAA could abdicate early and will not talk at their level, which they know in advance, making themselves look pathetic and ridiculous.

There is nothing left to say about this. Akayev is protected by the law and international law, and as such, does not need special protection from Otunbayeva. The issue is – one should pity this country, which is ruled by amateurs and is like Central African cannibalistic regimes, a model for villainy, violence and mass murder. The worst of Bakiev’s regime have come to power. In principle, their sleaze puts them firmly in the camp of the second president.

Every single one of them was Bakiev’s – all of them nested in his despotic presidency, cosied up to him and worked in senior positions. And they all share one thing – they were all used by Bakiev’s regime and then thrown in the dustbin and not because they are special people who reject time-serving and toadyism. If that had been the case they simply would not have touched this power. The Bakiev regime simply considered them incompetent and unprofessional.

And subsequent events have shown that in that, the Bakiev regime was absolutely right.

Life is a paradoxical thing. For instance, take the news watching and paper reading – the same information is repeated more or less each day. An act of terrorism in the Middle East. Warfare in Afghanistan. The recession. The Israel-Palestine strife. A corruption scandal in Italy. A sex scandal in Germany. A strike in France. A programmed speech of the Russian leader. The European Parliament Session. The China Communist Party Plenum. And yes, almost forgot – the Cuban people’s next epiphany of Fidel Castro. The picture is quite familiar and differing to the slightest of the yesterday’s or the day before yesterday’s one, even as far as the nuances are concerned. As a matter of fact, it differs very little from the one that we observed 10 years ago, 20 years ago, and, at the end of the day, of the one of half century and a century ago (it’s just that there was no TV back then). But after all, it’s the year 2010 we’re living in, the 10th year of the XXIst century. Remember, about 15-20 years ago the futurologists’ prognosis and the science fiction were quite in vogue. I can’t recall for sure what was planned back then for our times, but it was about something like inventing a medicine to treat all diseases, stopping all war and violence, creating a society of total prosperity, studying the Solar System planets, giving up the internal combustion engine, etc. So here we are, in the future, so what?

It is either the human nature, or the development of our civilization locked up and restarted the circle, but we are way too stuck in one place. It is not visible from the outside, but if we dig a little, it is visible and one could cry for the shame of it.

No need to go far away from our own homeland. The depredatory utilization of the natural resources, the social inequality, the irrational acts of the powerful ones… And lately, such words like “quranites”, “salaphites”, “vakhabites”, “jihad”, “religious extremism”, and such like appear more and more frequently in news headlines. There are disputes about wearing headscarves in educational institutions. Bearded mad-eyed men in the streets. Where did these come from? And it is coming from and not returning that it is all about, because the Kazakh tradition never involved religious dogmatism and fanaticism, it is indeed a newly emerged thing, and it emerged recently.

Remember how the criminal news sounded before? A thug was caught, a theft was investigated, a road patrol officer was caught taking bribe. And now? A national security employee was arrested for trafficking in drugs, a financial police officer was imprisoned for extortion; a customs worker was arrested for bribe-taking. Only the former BTA Bank owner continues featuring in the nowadays’ criminal news just as he did in the old ones, without any changes. Let us take the headlines of this summer only. Convicts, members of a radical Islam jail sect have escaped from the Mangistay correctional institution. The imam of the local mosque in Karaganda was convicted for manhandling his wife. In the Akmolin region were arrested and sentenced a couple of men (note that they were of Slavic origin) for distribution of literature calling for the jihad against the Kaffirs and containing instructions on how to make explosives. There were several cases of detainment, in the territory of Kazakhstan, of some Chechen fighters who took some “R&R” after warring against the federals. And here's a recent case: in June, in Almaty, there were 29 foreign citizens detained who were most wanted on international level for committing grave and very grave crimes in the territory of the neighboring Uzbekistan, namely – terrorism, murder, creation of and participation in religious extremist, separatist, fundamentalist, or other prohibited organizations, the organization of and participation at criminal communities, and other crimes.

Uzbekistan has long left Kazakhstan behind in such a dubious domain like the activity of religious extremism. Let us recall the facts. In February 1999, as a result of several acts of terrorism in Tashkent, 16 died and over a 100 were injured. In the spring of 2004, a series of explosions happened in Tashkent and in Bukhara region: 46 dead, 35 injured. In July, same year, new terrorist acts break out in the Uzbek capital – next to the US and Israel embassies, and at the gates of the General Prosecutor's office, yielding 3 dead and 8 injured. In 2005 the Andijan rebellion took place, starting with the fighters taking over the prison where those convicted for extremist activity were detained. In the spring of 2009 the power structures in Khanabad was attacked, and an explosion was set up in Andijhan. In July 2009 the chief Imam-Khatib of Tashkent was attacked as he proclaimed himself against the extremists. The imam has survived by miracle after several knife stabs, and his assistant died. In August of the same year Asadov, an Interns officer who was in charge of the imam’s case investigation, was shot dead...

The interesting thing is that almost all the observers, as they condemned the terrorist acts and made their condolences about the victims, did not linger in throwing some rocks at the Tashkent totalitarian police-ridden regime, against which «the people expresses their protest in such way». One may not be so in love Islam Karimov, and to be honest, he is not a very lovable person, but no one should forged that it is him who maintains stability and secularity in Uzbekistan (and in the entire Central Asia, in many respects) with an iron hand, being the ruler of an overpopulated state with low life quality and ancient religious traditions…

It is easy to blame someone to be a totalitarian person while sitting in cozy offices in Hague and Brussels, and reading professionally written declarations about human rights abuse and persecution for religious reasons. It is easy to split the world into “good” and “bad”, especially as the modern Western geopolitics formed in the years of the cold war, was firstly parting the world into democrats and communists, then democrats and dictators, and now it's democrats, dictators, and terrorists. Again, I do not intend to praise Saddam or the Taliban, but the “democratization” of Iraq and Afghanistan led, among others, to interminable hostilities, millions of victims and refugees, bloody religious conflicts, and has simplified the drugs traffic to «the winner countries» along the way. Seems like no one is against an Islamic party winning the elections, but what to do if this party (movement) acts for the destructions of the “unfaithful” by all available means and in other places that their homeland territory as well? How to determine where is the limit where the democracy ends and the counteraction of terrorism starts? Do we have to protect the human rights, if this specific human includes the power to kill and rape in the list of their “abused” rights?

This matter, incidentally, turned out to be very topical in Kazakhstan. Let us take the already mentioned story with several dozens of arrested Kazakhstan nationals.

Here is a little of prehistory. Since January 1 of this year, a new law On Refugees has come into effect, under which the sole authority entitled to attribute the status of refugee became the Immigration Committee by the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population, and its territorial branches. Prior to the adoption of this law, this matter was more of a job for the regional representation of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. And after the law was adopted, a political fight has begun. The international organizations and media got showered with collective letters with requests about not letting the State authorities of Kazakhstan taking over the refugee cases and to insure immediately their relocation from Kazakhstan to Europe, US and Canada. Moreover, the representation employees were bombarded with anonymous phone calls with threats, unless the “human rights defenders start fulfilling their obligations stat”. One of the callers even promised to come and blow herself up, and take the High Commissioner’s representation office with her, unless her refugee husband is not freed as soon as possible. The UN officers have at once tightened their security and applied to the law enforcement authorities. And then, lots of interested details started coming to light.

Among the signatories of that very application about the Kazakhstani authorities’ involvement in the refugee status assignment being totally inadmissible, turned out to be Abduazimhuzha Yakubov, Ravshan Turaev, and Alisher Khashimov. Last August, these three “refugees” tracked down and murdered Khassan Asadov, head of anti-terrorist department of the Ministry of Interns of Uzbekistan, and did so in an atrocious way, moreover, under the eyes of his wife and small children. Question arose to be asked to many other “signatories”, whose names were found in the lists of radical extremist groups' members involved in terrorist acts in the neighboring republic...

At that, in their applications to receive the refugee status and to move to Europe all the aforesaid persons referred to the fact that they did not break any laws in their home country but were compelled to run from the State that prosecuted them for doing the namaz. By the way, there are over 20 million Muslims living in Uzbekistan, and none of them complained about prosecution for religion and no one tried to escape to Europe. So, what is the difference between these adorable fugitives and the regular Muslim population? Why no one paid attention that the choir of the refugees’ rights defenders, accompanied by all sorts of public men, was jointed by the “Imarat Caucasus”, a well-known terrorist community that published materials to support the Uzbek brothers on their web site, Caucasus Center?

One of the refugees, Dilbek Karimov, when asked about his nationality, explained to the ignorant that “there only are two nationalities in the world – the Muslims and the Kaffirs”. From the viewpoint of the Islamic theology, such a statement is characteristic for the followers of the so-called Takfir. The Takfir is the declaration of persons or entire groups as non-Muslims, which automatically deprives them of the inviolability of life and property, and makes them subject to sanctions up to murder. At that, the killing of the “unfaithful” must be systematic and organized, as the Takfir followers affirm, in the form of jihad. And here it becomes clear why the fugitives did not choose Saudi Arabia as their target, because it is a country known for an extremely intolerant attitude towards the Takfir followers, as the declaration of a person as unfaithful is a very-very responsible act. Such decision can only be made only on the basis of court verdict by approved scientist Sheikhs after a thorough and exhaustive examination rather than on the basis of personal decision. As for the West, it did not — not until recently, at least — ever try to go deep in the differences between the various sides of Islam, often believing that the Shiites and Sunnites are national groups rather than religious ones.

The officers of international organizations, especially those working in such domains, are unusual persons, humane and trusting; it can be even said that they are humanists doing very hard work by helping people ended up in difficult situations. And they are educated in the spirit of the modern humanitarian concepts. They have of course read about totalitarian Asian regimes, about persecution, about fighting the opposition, about ethnic purges; so helping the victims of tyranny is their direct obligations as of officers and humans. And even if they do have access to the databases of CIA, FBI, FSB, KNB or SNBU, their liberal thinking keeps them from trusting the special services. As a matter of fact, if the UNO or EU people want it, they are totally entitled to have anyone with any status whatsoever immigrating to their territory. UK, for instance, just loves giving political asylum to all and sundry, from Berezovsky to Zakaev, and nobody can do a thing about it. The stronghold of Western liberal democracy — the US – have also been very fond of humanitarian missions all over the world and saving the poor and miserable, until several hijacked Boeings changed their attitude towards the terrorist problem and the national security. Let me say it again – they are totally entitled, until the «liberal values» come to a rough contradiction with their own citizens’ right to live.

Very recently, a major terrorist act was prevented by pure miracle in Oslo. It was organized by several Al Qaeda members who came to Norway as none other but refugees who left their countries for political and religious motives. Moreover, one of the arrested turned out to be a native of Uzbekistan who came to Oslo in 2002 under the UNO program for the reunion of Kazakhstani families, and was about to receive Norwegian citizenship. A coincidence or a pattern? Why, due to the trustfulness of international organizations, the West now takes up a literally uncontrollable flow of immigrants who are not checked by anybody for appurtenance to terrorist, extremist organizations, drug mafia, criminal communities? Maybe, Kazakhstan, Russia or Uzbekistan should start offering political asylum to the IRA, ETA, Hamas, or Al-Qaeda fighers as to refugees for political and religious reasons. Only I'm afraid, the US and the EU will be unable to appreciate the whole irony of it... The newswires have just announced that the European Court for Human Rights forbid the Russian authorities to extradite Abdumutallib Karimov, an Uzbekistani national, suspected of terrorist in his home country, and decreed for him to be paid 13 thousand euro as compensation. Of course, maybe he and some other “saved” by the law rights defenders are peaceful civilians and victims of tyranny, but there is no guarantee that the next following refugee will not buy some explosives with these 13 thousand and will not blow him- or herself up in the building of the European court, an American embassy, a Spanish subway station, or a residential building? Of course, Europe knows better...

And those who are physically located at the edge of civilizations, so to say, do actually get to see and hear every day the things that are not broadcasted by liberal channels and radio stations, in cases when one has to make a distinction between a migrant worker who came in order to survive and provide for his family, and the murderer and terrorist hiding under this mask, between a friendly Diaspora of hard working citizen and a sect. But look here, the very structure and functioning of such “communities” is very peculiar and impossible to oversee when looked at attentively. There is a sheikh leading the group, to which several leaders of refugee groups are reporting, whereas these groups are divided by ethnicity, religious training level, family status. All the subgroups are strictly isolated from each other and controlled by their curator. At that, the communication between groups is permitted only at weekly religious classes. The community members are ordered to hide carefully their views from the people around them, and the “activists” who did business and communicated with the exterior medium, were supposed to shave off their beards and look positively worldly. The refugee compatriots applying for help to the community were given access only if they observed the Islam rules as these were interpreted by the sheikh…

For instance, here is quite an illustrative example that was staged in no other place but the Kazakhstan capital. In 2007—2008 another guest worker party came to Astana. They did well, so their compatriots started pouring into the capital as well. But only those who did the prayers five times a day and were ready to obey in all respects the group leader, called amir or sheikh, were admitted to the crews. The sheikhs have explained clearly that the workers had to be careful, to hide their true beliefs, to blend in the general mass of believers, and if the “builder” is arrested by the law enforcement, he has to tell them a sob story about prosecutions and life being hard in Uzbekistan. The good thing for them was that some Kazakhstani officers love to hear stories about how bad it is in Tashkent and how good it is here… But what did really happen? There were cases when those who refused to do the prayers or missed them were beaten hard and even stabbed at the amir’s instructions. No wonder that some workers ran off back home, being unable to resist the wonders of common life with the “pious mentors”. It is well known about the end of the Astana story. A part of the crew members subsequently went south and participated, within the gang, in the well-publicized terrorist acts in the Uzbek cities of Khanabad and Andizhan in May 2009. One of them, Kamal Matkasimov, a fervent jihad adept, blew himself up…

The interesting thing is that this “guest workers group” was build based on the same principle that the “refugees group”, which all this noise is going on about in Almaty right now. As a matter of fact, it shows the signs of not so much a sect than an organized criminal grouping…

The paradoxical thing is that we must be grateful that the extremists from the southern borders see Kazakhstan as a country where money can be made and from where, via the regional representation of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, they can make their way to Europe, as there is need for labor, the attitude towards the refugees has been liberal until recently, and it is always possible to “make a deal” with the district police officer or with the immigration service officer. As we got too fond of Western democratic legislative norms and convention, our “multidirectional” politics and our religious tolerance by opening the country to literally no matter who, we have created in our midst a favorable environment for dozens of sects, communities, groups to emerge, who live under their own laws and strongly believe in their own exceptionality, and believe that they know truth unavailable to other people, common people, in their contempt towards the community, which will sooner or later transform into contempt towards the other's rights to life and individual freedom...

As recently as a couple of days ago, a horrendous crime was investigated in Almaty region – the murders of a police major and his lady friend, whose throats were cut… The investigation showed that the police officer had participated in his time at the discovery of the cruel murders of several local residents. Back then, the murderer was caught and convicted. As shown by the investigation, the major and the girl were killed by the convict’s friends, members of one of the small aggressive religious sects (who, incidentally, were ethnic Kazakhs). TNT blocks with detonators were found in the apartment of one of them. It is yet unknown what they were preparing for and whom these explosives were meant for. But there are lately more and more episodes when, as extremist literature is sequestrated, the law enforcement officers keep on finding weapons, large amounts of money, explosive devices, drugs… And it is not about ethnicity, as the religious extremism has a global nature, therefore the Chechen, Uzbek or Afghan fighters will always find a common language with their “colleagues” rather than with their peaceful compatriots…

And here the sci-fi writers and futurists come to mind again, with a couple of (not so) kind words to say to their credit. Take, for instance, Kubrick's “2001: A Space Odyssey”, where the evolution from ape to Jupiter expedition is metaphorically shown. And what we have in reality is inspiring joyless thoughts: the man has discovered nuclear energy and invented the computer, but it ended up in nuclear weapons and porn sites, while the religions created thousands of years ago and laying at the basis of the modern political thinking, are still offered thousands of human victims in sacrifice…

Today III Astana Economic Forum started in the capital of Kazakhstan. This year it will be dedicated to the topic “Sustainable Economic Growth in post-Crisis Period”.

Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists Association (EECSA), The Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning, and The Institute of Economic Researches have become organizers of the Forum.

Annual economic forum will bring together above 2000 representatives of political and business circles from more than 50 countries of the world, as well as leading scientists, public and mass media representatives, in order to discuss key issues of global economic development.

Third Astana Economic Forum is aimed to elaborate mechanisms for shaping conditions for long-term sustainable development of world economy and states sector in, based on consolidation of state economic strategy, scientific achievements as well as initiatives of private sector post-recessionary period.

Heads of the biggest international financial institutions, notable economic scholars such as laureates of Nobel Prize in Economics, Finn Kydland, Robert Aumann, Secretary General of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, Secretary General of UN Economic Commission for Europe, Jan Kubis, former Prime Minister of Canada, Jean Chretien, The President of European Investment Bank, Philippe Maystadt, The Vice-president of Asian Development Bank, Z. Xiaoyu, аs well as representatives of moneyed interest and the head of corporations will take part in the work of the Forum.

The President of Republic of Kazakhstan, Mr.Nazarbayev will deliver a welcoming speech to the participants on the opening ceremony of Forum.

During two days high guests will make reports and take part in discussions on actual issues of social-economic security providing in post-crisis period.

More than 4 000 local and foreign journalists obtained accreditation to cover the work of the Forum. Among them there are leading international mass media such as International Herald Tribune, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Euronews, The New York Times Xinhua and many others.

Business Forum of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs with participation of above 300 delegates from different countries will become large event of Astana Economic Forum. The main goal of the Forum is creation of Eurasian Business Congress directed on expansion of mutually beneficial trade-economic connections and investment cooperation on Eurasian space and interaction in development of perspective and high-technology economic spheres.

Conference entitled “Conference of State-private Partnership of Pease Centers” will be held on the first day of Forum. Representatives of State-private Partnership Centers, central and local executive bodies, experts and representatives of non-governmental organizations will take part in discussions.

As final stage of the given discussion organizers see signing of Memorandum on Creation of Unified Source (international center) of State-private Partnership.

International conference dedicated to mechanisms of Islamic financing regulation in the conditions of post-crisis development will be held in the frames of the Forum. The primary goal of the event will become formation of integral system of Islamic financing regulation in Kazakhstan. Above 280 participants, including heads and representatives of financial institutions, small and medium-sized business representatives, primary financial regulators of the RK, state institutions, which carry out control-supervision function of Islamic financial institutions, heads of investment funds in RK will take part in the work of the Conference.

Experts acknowledge that foundation of economic recovery in post-crisis period is resultative and effective-functional national innovation system. Для освещения

In connection with this, Innovative Congress with participation of key figures and companies, which play important role in innovative technologies’ development, will be organized in the frames of Third Astana Economic Forum. Representatives of state structures for innovations and technologies from Finland, Norway, Germany, Korea, France and Israel will share positive experience of national innovative economics’ development and recommendations for innovative policy in Central Asian countries and Kazakhstan.

Exhibition of industrial-innovative projects and scientific works will also take place in the frames of the given event.

In addition to these events, Third Astana Economic Forum will be rich in events of different format. Final documents and events:

— Issuance of an Open Letter to the Heads of G-20 member-states;

— making up results of The Best Research in Economic Sphere competition;

— making up results of The Best Report on Internet Forum competition;

— making up results of The Eurasian Star Youth competition;

On the threshold of Third Astana Economic Forum Internet forum was held. Extraordinary thoughts, ideas, knowledge, suggestions, spoken out during this event, will be thoroughly examined by the World Economic Community. The most interesting suggestions and ideas will be taken as the basis for constructive and interesting discussions in the frameworks of Third Astana Economic Forum and, undoubtedly, will serve the creation of prosperous and sustained World.

According to the results of the competition, the best articles will be published in special edition of EFR: Economics, Finances and Researches magazine. The winners will be rewarded with money reward.

The World Bank, UN European Economic Commission, Islamic Development Bank, “Parasat” Holding, JSC “National Innovation Fund” and Kazakhstani Center of State-private Partnership supported the Forum. General sponsor of the Forum is JSC “National Wellbeing Fund ‘Samruk-Kazyna’” and JSC “National Company ‘KazMunaiGas’.”

Association “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists”

010000, Astana c., Left Bank, m-n Chubari

Temirkazik Str. 65

Telephones: +7 (7172) 70 18 04, 8701 705 74 95

Faxes: +7 7172 70 18 35

E-mail: smi@aef.kz, aef2010@bk.ru

Web-site: http://www.aef.kz

“Only heart can foreseen. Main things can’t be seen by eyes”

Saint-Exupéry

Sociology stays as one of the most discredited sciences in Kazakhstan. Perhaps only philology, historical and political science can be regarded the same. But even if sociological measurements itself are not put in doubt (which is not typical for Kazakhstani environment), then conclusions are made by each one. Experts and interpreters are trying to get in heads of common people, but as a rule without success. Academic hideousy and political engagement are coming into contradiction with everyday experience of the people.

Human capital assets is quite unique. There is nothing to wonder about – just to look upon last hundred years in history of the republic. Stopypin agricultural reforms and resettlement of peasants from central regions of Russian Empire on the outskirts directed by it, First World War, pan-Kazakh rebellion of 1916, February and October revolutions of 1917, the civil war, dekulakization, collectivization and famine caused by ut in the end of 20th – beginning of 30th, repressions of 1937—1939, Great Patriotic War…

And then clearing of virgin soils, crisis of administrative-command system of economics and Communistic party monopoly on power, and finally USSR disintegration. By the second half of 20th century Kazakhstan has actually survived atomic war – 491 nuclear explosions, part of which were far from being underground. The era of independency has started with economical crisis and economic degradation and violent migrational processes. In the beginning of 00’s the economy seemingly started to develop, but at that cemented the abyss between rich and poor along with insignificant middle class.

And then there was economical crisis, unsealing affairs with housing construction, mortgage loans and realty bubble, hypertrophied scales of peculation and corruption. All this on the background of continuing worsening of governmental administration and service quality, degradation of educational and public health systems on the background of its service prices growth. And also there was virtually unlimited growth of rates on housing and utilities and other services of monopolists. Along with that the discredit of law-enforcing, legal and military systems, the war of power-financial clans, administrative and legal lawlessness.

To survive in such condition without immigration from the country and to keep on the surface of society as a bum or a prisoner of colony, a one should be at least extraordinary man. However, this is without trying Kazakhs to make entry into Guinness Book on the indicator of “no limit to angelic patience”. The year 1986 showed and proved that with Chiron approach it can explode in any single moment – it might be only interest in serious circles, which have needful resources.

Thus, what an average Kazakh took from the last fifty years of history, living all his life within the boarders of his republic? On the mind, he would have certainty that life has a tendency to be worsened. For that it is enough to recall the mental outlook during Moscow Olympic Games of 1980, empty counters of 1990’s, unemployment growth and decrease of real incomes of 2010. Obviously, it doesn’t it has nothing to do with short periods of good things: flow of information during Perestroyka, emergence of Internet, on time p

For that reason when people been said that everything has exaggerated and bored them, it is not the reason to thing that tomorrow they will go out on a square and start to crash governmental property. As a matter of fact, such things are also possible, but generally it is not the most possible scenario. Until there is something to feed on in the fridge, children are employed and have salary, and criminal elements are not outraged until the level when villains are rushing in people housing – it is a temptation to continue “charming” moments. It is never to late to throw Molotovs on police cars and to fight marauders (or try yourself as one). So for that reason today a common person in its masses choosing between familiar evil (acting political regime) and unfamiliar (what would be after it or instead of it), and they choose familiar.

Since energy and water supply systems are working, although with interruptions. There is something to eat and something to feed on. And there is somebody to stop extremists when they are going to completely forget about checks and balances mechanisms. On this silent and patient basis, Nursultan Nazarbayev can be whatever he wants to be – leader of the nation or Khan of all Kazakhs. On the memory of one generation, which gone from planned economy to the market one to live better, only ten percent truly started to live better, whereas other 90% only worse. If one avoided accruing contradictory luck to steal and peculate – one should value what given.

Hence phenomenon incomprehensible to many experts, when a man clearly unsatisfied with existing state of things, but voting for power (at least, not giving his vote to the opposition). Swedish and British patterns are inappropriate here.

Kazakhstan now survives one bitch of an era, when every new breed of government officials is worse than their predecessors. Drug addiction and alcoholism are seizing all of social space. Sexual loose on one side and women in purdah on the other; but their dress-code is by no means a guarantee of chastity and morality. There are very few famous persons in public view that can be described as “Human being” in highest meaning of the word, let alone more precise – a “Citizen” (Azamat)…

However, it is not allowed to cheer of cheat you up in huge, spacious and rich offices. Today is not the right day for it. It is always extremely hard to keep all that was in abundance. But there are people with abundance, and they are too noticeable. Empty fridge, lack of earnings and injustice could be settled in such combination, when it can push to find meaning of existence above high fences of luxurious mansions. And when such thing will happen, then no police officers could do anything with it. It is only worth to remember what happened during April events in Bishkek, when angered crowd was not stopper by snipers and machine gun bursts at short range.

Ruling regime should be thinking about self-discipline as soon as the day before. The desire to get hands on next billion is understandable and explainable, but not when it concerns questions of system survival, and people living in it in the same time. The most objective sociological researches are witnessing: the number of satisfied with living is decreasing, whereas the percentage of displeased is growing. The trend for the last half of year is obvious, disturbing and dangerous.

The power is catastrophically underestimating disrespect to labour, formed in the society. When labour is not respected and not allowed because of bureaucratic pressure on small business, not valuing and not giving an opportunity to normally feed one – is completely prepared social bomb with clock mechanism. It was necessary to leave this road already yesterday and the day before. There is no time left to do nothing but sitting. Since when one sitting, the situation is worsening.

A revolution destroys no less good things than it creates. Because of that there must be always something for average person that he is afraid to lose. The main thing for poverty is people. And if a child can get any kind of education, the other was murdered by bandits for fun, no job to do for a third and, a house is going to be destructed by bulldozer since it is illegal – it is easy to make a prognosis, where all accumulated anger will go. For the matter that the present system can’t win hypothetical one by points, and miserable ones would want to take risk. This is guaranteed even by political sociology.