A word on everything – 2010

By Analytical-informational bureau PIK

A result is not what has been harvested but what was seeded

Robert Lewis Stevenson

A year of tectonic shifts – that’s how year 2010 can be described in the newest history of Kazakhstan. In difference to volcanic eruption a tectonic shift is not so graphic; instead the results of such a process are far enduring and massive than Eyjafjallajokull volcano on civil flights in Europe.

The leader of the nation

Nursultan Nazarbayev stays unreachable to any political opponents inside Kazakhstan. Massive amounts of compromising information on persons of his surrounding and figures in the opposition have had a paradoxical effect. Vivid stamp of Yermukhamet Yertisbayev known as “president’s nightingale” that the present head of the state has no alternative suddenly became filled with reason for common people.

With help of the internet and other mass-media, various strata of society managed to assure that the republic literally can’t be left on anyone and devolved to nobody. All people within power are either furtive or hot-headed ambitious, whereas adequacy and frugality are not within their features at all. We would lower those minions of fortune among numbers of fools, who don’t have enough reason to understand even that the black caviar and Louis XIV cognac can be consumed until the present model of the state is holding itself on a rod personified in president Nazarbayev.

The efficiency, with which the law “On the first president – the leader of the nation” was established and lack of protests which accompanied this process is saying about a few things in one. Nobody is being disturbed with it, for the numbers of reflex intelligence are low. There are much more of those “cultural figures”, who are ready to write some ode to Nursultan Nazarbayev in hope to get a flat in Astana or a post by onomastic commission in some region.

The second moment is witnessing: those who have something to lose are still largely present in Kazakhstan. Because of the absence of a public official who can assure compatriots faith in the fact that a change of power would go without cataclysms the people are agreed that the current president would exercise powers as long as he can. The proposition from Eastern Kazakhstan about referendum with purpose of prolongation of latitudes is also from the same opera. A massive of people have nothing against that the phase of big infighting for power would be moved at least to the year 2020

Managerial default of SamrukKazyna

SamrukKazyna National Wellbeing Fund can now be renamed into National Wealth Dissipation Fund Seven hands in Treasury. Even for resources based economy with constant flow of oil dollars and profits from other types of strategic resources, SamrukKazyna appears to be too expensive toy for its uselessness.

There are no any noticeable projects financed by this development institute which are worth mentioning. The main results of its activities are sleek and well-fed officials, around hundred of grown-rich trusted businessmen and around a thousand of those who very well improved their financial stance. But the thing is that Samruk Kazyna was established for the purposes of developing whole country and its economy. The role of economical emergency brake which is successfully performed by the Foundation, was never registered or regulated. It appears that SamrukKazyna is carrying this assignment by its own initiative instead of executing what was its purpose of activities.

In 2010 there was a shift from quantity to quality changes in SamrukKazyna, Damu and other organizations, which can be called development institutes only jokingly. Businessmen, journalists and society have assured themselves that those monsters are literally eating colossal resources but without any actual help. Now what’s left is only waiting for political reasons can be made out of the situation.

The black Kyzyl-Agash

The tragedy in Kyzyl-Agash village of Almaty region is more than an accident. Here, like in a weak chain section, collided corruption privatization of strategic objects, dereliction and incompetence of bodies of governmental organizations on places and impossibility of civilians to be listened to. For a long time even certain number of victims couldn’t be named, since if a whole family died because of dam breakage, then there were nobody left to make statement about injured.

Kyzyl-Agash showed that infrastructural objects built in USSR times can’t stay forever. It is necessary to make constant monitoring of their condition, to conduct maintenance and modernistaion, thus to find investments. Also nobody can reject the importance of competent servicing and qualified exploitation. The dam is not only a thing of profit but also an object of high dangers and risks. To lose its sight from governmental bodies is a crime.

Human victims have uncovered another Achilles’ heel of governmental management such as the lack of due inter-institutional cooperation. Every single governmental structure is trying to take advantages over itself with moving its responsibilities on some other in the same time. Whereas all of these are called power, and from that it’s always required.

Political tsetse fly

On the background of runaway banker Ablyazovthe other runaway, Rakhat Aliev (Shodiev), ex-son-in-law of the president of the country, has somewhat lost. The reason is that mister Aliev has money only on wiretaps of phone calls of VIP persons and significant figures of Kazakh political field, whereas resources of Mukhtar Ablyazov are much better diversified. This includes unregistered Alga political party, Respublica media holding, NGO network financed by his channels, focused manipulation of key personalities which are being listened by one or another part of society.

As the result, Ablyazov managed to establish serious problems of trendy kind for the acting political regime. His omnivorous behave, when there are tools such as returning of khan Kenesary’s head to groups of national patriots, used to destabilize situation, have forced the power to implement a certain mobilization of its followers and resources. Regular means of propaganda and punitive body have not been enough for the runaway oligarch in 2010.

Customs union or a knee of the president

Living in global world is forcing Astana to search for real strategic aliases. 2010 appeared to be important in relation with Kazakhstan’s certainty with its main vector. In terms of wind streamline its called North, and in political coordinates it’s called Russia.

The origin of elections is more than obvious. Astana is powerless against such players as China; to build relationships with such countries of the region as Uzbekistan is impossible (they have different value systems), and it’s possible to play big games on one’s own in modern world is a domain of only powerful countries, to which average Kazakhstan couldn’t be objectively related.

The customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus is not liked by zealots of sovereignty, whose overviews ending on collecting tolls from car owners who passing Korday mountain pass. Nursultan Nazarbayev either doesn’t want or not able to be engaged in controversy with then, since their brains couldn’t be replaced in those people’ heads. That’s why the process of forming up customs union and Eurasian economic union is implemented with directive measures. Those who so poor in mind to realize the reality of modern world will be broken on president’s knee. They can’t do anything actual in response, and hysteric people can’t bother anyone in big politics.

The first counter-strike of Shala on Nagyz

The outgoing year appeared to be the first when Shala-Kazakhs started to make informational counter-strikes on Nagyz-Kazakhs. In distant times Nagyz-Kazakhs have actually offended their compatriots in Mankurtism and betrayal of spiritual roots almost unpunished. In 2010 the patience has been exhausted and in response the speeches about intellectual inferiority of Nagyz, from which everything else is following.

Curiously enough, but the initial serious attempt of Shala-Kazakhs to call a spade a spade had taken positive effect. Nagyz-Kazakhs have lowered down their claims in Russian-spoken informational field, and Kazakh-speaking media is not especially bothering Shala-Kazakhs since it is existing in parallel universe. From the other side, there are less contacts in public bottleneck between two massive reservoirs of Kazakh ethnicity, which couldn’t be called positive thing.

The stability of growing prices

The prices and tariffs of monopolists were growing all year, going ahead of income increases of the million. As the result, 2010 has made it into social-economical history of the country as time of decrease of resource abilities of so-called average Kazakh. The further commercialization of social sector (schools, hospitals, art circles, sport sections) has been worsening overall picture even more.

The economy of the republic stays extremely monopolized in both industrial and territorial profiles. This establishes favourable conditions for policies known as maximization of income. Along with corruption content (customs, traffic police, officials from licensing, control and regulatory bodies) it creates the highest additional expenses for sales people, which are written off from consumers’ wallets.

A thinned nerves of elite

Rivaling power-financial groups were continuing to sort out relationships between each other for the whole year. For the number of participants this has been ended with imprisonment. The pressure of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s authority is restraining elite from starting a full-scale war of extermination (for when battles are for power there are no prisoners of war taken), but psychologically they are ready to deal with each other to find a winner. They are simply frightened to do it ahead of time or conversely to be late, missing the first hit of enemies. As the result they constantly displaying power in front of each other and already can’t determine the line themselves, below which an intension transforms into full-scale challenge and instigating war.

The confrontation of power-financial groups has already gained such predetermined direction and intertia that more and more experts are separating this factor as the most explosive for overall stability of political system. If earlier the massive of observers were uniting in opinion that wars of elite wouldn’t slop over the boarders of establishment and political class, then in 2010 more and more experts are predicting stir with a vast number of participants. If only the observable trend would not be lead to break point.