Political sociology: different conclusions on any given material

By Analytical-informational Bureau PIK

“Only heart can foreseen. Main things can’t be seen by eyes”

Saint-Exupéry

Sociology stays as one of the most discredited sciences in Kazakhstan. Perhaps only philology, historical and political science can be regarded the same. But even if sociological measurements itself are not put in doubt (which is not typical for Kazakhstani environment), then conclusions are made by each one. Experts and interpreters are trying to get in heads of common people, but as a rule without success. Academic hideousy and political engagement are coming into contradiction with everyday experience of the people.

Human capital assets is quite unique. There is nothing to wonder about – just to look upon last hundred years in history of the republic. Stopypin agricultural reforms and resettlement of peasants from central regions of Russian Empire on the outskirts directed by it, First World War, pan-Kazakh rebellion of 1916, February and October revolutions of 1917, the civil war, dekulakization, collectivization and famine caused by ut in the end of 20th – beginning of 30th, repressions of 1937—1939, Great Patriotic War…

And then clearing of virgin soils, crisis of administrative-command system of economics and Communistic party monopoly on power, and finally USSR disintegration. By the second half of 20th century Kazakhstan has actually survived atomic war – 491 nuclear explosions, part of which were far from being underground. The era of independency has started with economical crisis and economic degradation and violent migrational processes. In the beginning of 00’s the economy seemingly started to develop, but at that cemented the abyss between rich and poor along with insignificant middle class.

And then there was economical crisis, unsealing affairs with housing construction, mortgage loans and realty bubble, hypertrophied scales of peculation and corruption. All this on the background of continuing worsening of governmental administration and service quality, degradation of educational and public health systems on the background of its service prices growth. And also there was virtually unlimited growth of rates on housing and utilities and other services of monopolists. Along with that the discredit of law-enforcing, legal and military systems, the war of power-financial clans, administrative and legal lawlessness.

To survive in such condition without immigration from the country and to keep on the surface of society as a bum or a prisoner of colony, a one should be at least extraordinary man. However, this is without trying Kazakhs to make entry into Guinness Book on the indicator of “no limit to angelic patience”. The year 1986 showed and proved that with Chiron approach it can explode in any single moment – it might be only interest in serious circles, which have needful resources.

Thus, what an average Kazakh took from the last fifty years of history, living all his life within the boarders of his republic? On the mind, he would have certainty that life has a tendency to be worsened. For that it is enough to recall the mental outlook during Moscow Olympic Games of 1980, empty counters of 1990’s, unemployment growth and decrease of real incomes of 2010. Obviously, it doesn’t it has nothing to do with short periods of good things: flow of information during Perestroyka, emergence of Internet, on time p

For that reason when people been said that everything has exaggerated and bored them, it is not the reason to thing that tomorrow they will go out on a square and start to crash governmental property. As a matter of fact, such things are also possible, but generally it is not the most possible scenario. Until there is something to feed on in the fridge, children are employed and have salary, and criminal elements are not outraged until the level when villains are rushing in people housing – it is a temptation to continue “charming” moments. It is never to late to throw Molotovs on police cars and to fight marauders (or try yourself as one). So for that reason today a common person in its masses choosing between familiar evil (acting political regime) and unfamiliar (what would be after it or instead of it), and they choose familiar.

Since energy and water supply systems are working, although with interruptions. There is something to eat and something to feed on. And there is somebody to stop extremists when they are going to completely forget about checks and balances mechanisms. On this silent and patient basis, Nursultan Nazarbayev can be whatever he wants to be – leader of the nation or Khan of all Kazakhs. On the memory of one generation, which gone from planned economy to the market one to live better, only ten percent truly started to live better, whereas other 90% only worse. If one avoided accruing contradictory luck to steal and peculate – one should value what given.

Hence phenomenon incomprehensible to many experts, when a man clearly unsatisfied with existing state of things, but voting for power (at least, not giving his vote to the opposition). Swedish and British patterns are inappropriate here.

Kazakhstan now survives one bitch of an era, when every new breed of government officials is worse than their predecessors. Drug addiction and alcoholism are seizing all of social space. Sexual loose on one side and women in purdah on the other; but their dress-code is by no means a guarantee of chastity and morality. There are very few famous persons in public view that can be described as “Human being” in highest meaning of the word, let alone more precise – a “Citizen” (Azamat)…

However, it is not allowed to cheer of cheat you up in huge, spacious and rich offices. Today is not the right day for it. It is always extremely hard to keep all that was in abundance. But there are people with abundance, and they are too noticeable. Empty fridge, lack of earnings and injustice could be settled in such combination, when it can push to find meaning of existence above high fences of luxurious mansions. And when such thing will happen, then no police officers could do anything with it. It is only worth to remember what happened during April events in Bishkek, when angered crowd was not stopper by snipers and machine gun bursts at short range.

Ruling regime should be thinking about self-discipline as soon as the day before. The desire to get hands on next billion is understandable and explainable, but not when it concerns questions of system survival, and people living in it in the same time. The most objective sociological researches are witnessing: the number of satisfied with living is decreasing, whereas the percentage of displeased is growing. The trend for the last half of year is obvious, disturbing and dangerous.

The power is catastrophically underestimating disrespect to labour, formed in the society. When labour is not respected and not allowed because of bureaucratic pressure on small business, not valuing and not giving an opportunity to normally feed one – is completely prepared social bomb with clock mechanism. It was necessary to leave this road already yesterday and the day before. There is no time left to do nothing but sitting. Since when one sitting, the situation is worsening.

A revolution destroys no less good things than it creates. Because of that there must be always something for average person that he is afraid to lose. The main thing for poverty is people. And if a child can get any kind of education, the other was murdered by bandits for fun, no job to do for a third and, a house is going to be destructed by bulldozer since it is illegal – it is easy to make a prognosis, where all accumulated anger will go. For the matter that the present system can’t win hypothetical one by points, and miserable ones would want to take risk. This is guaranteed even by political sociology.