Nobody safe from sudden

By Analytical-informational Bureau PIK

The main thing is to overtax oneself in spiritual search

The book of thousand and one wagons

Recent political life of Kazakhstan is once again witnessing: every major event happens in only two cities – Astana and Almaty. The strike in Zhanaozen, radical protests in Aktobe – are too, serious, but still not within highest political league. Because in the Southern capital, if one would chop a fish’s head, and it’s already would get serious informational vibrance. But if one poisons anyone in some place of Kyzylorda district – the even would be in typical accidents.

There is a general thought, that every functioning system is better than nothing. However, any system has not only beginning and end in terms of historical time, but also those who support it (actively or passively) or destroying it. As the architect of modern Kazakhstani model (political, socio-economical, legal) is inherently interested in continuation of its functioning and reproduction. But yet in his closest circles there are those who would happily replace the first principal on his position.

To get the desirable place, it is not enough only to have willingness and money. There are allies required, at least a little known on political field. The field itself is present first of all in Almaty and Astana. There contenders on Chair Number One will look for their resources.

Astana is relatively easy to handle and control by ruling regime. There are lots of authorities and state domestic holding, form and spirit of which transforming people into quasi-state workers. Also there are lots of law-enforcement agencies’ and defense ministry’s employees. As the result, political impulses in the capital are going from top to bottom. Combustible layers of society, which are named “cheated shareholders and mortgage slaves” are only appeared recently only in connection with bank affairs and construction corporations. Economic crisis factor together with ineffectiveness of governmental bodies are not allowing to this thromb resolving. As he result the nutrition environment for activity of such politicians as ex-senator Zauresh Battalova. She is certainly a woman of feisty character, but factually been forced to be a guerilla, because she don’t have enough resources on full-fledged political force. But it worth to do justice to Madame Battalova – she is mastering the potential active protest niche quite handy and professionally.

By stratification of people and structure of the city itself Almaty is very different from Astana. In addition the Southern Capital is informally four times bigger than the administrative capital in terms of population, which means passage from quantity changes to quality ones. Specific “weight” of Ruler’s Block in measures of metropolis is substantially lesser than in Astana. Instead, there is more small and middle business, NGO’s. independent and oppositional mass-media. Protest and oppositional space is also can’t be compared to the ones in Astana.

The enemy number one for the authorities until the present day is Aynur Kurmanov, Social Resistance (unregistered organization) and “Kazakhstan-2012” movement, Talmas movement (registered organization) leader. When policemen kidnapping Mr. Kurmanov from his office and then giving 15 days of administrative arrest, then they act completely boundlessly, whereas by codes of reason – correctly. The thing is that real center of all unsanctioned protest movements is Aynur Kurmanov. Although the law-enforcement system of Almaty can’t apply any of formal legal conviction on him. There is nothing confusing in this, since not only housing and utilities infrastructure, educational and public health services systems are degrading.

Aynur Kurmanov is ideological adversary to present Kazakhstani system. It is the complete speaking fact about him. It’s a little amazing that an organization with impossible name for 2001, the Socialistic Resistance, has powerfully shot out in 2006 and since then makes its “overseers restless from year to year. But on this point it is worth to keep in mind that after almost all socialistic countries have gone from the planet Earth, nobody on countries level are focusing left vector on themselves. Because of that in conditions of globalization, social injustice, governmental ineffectiveness and corruption, left ideas are going inside societies and finding an arm there. Serious researchers are giving very short term until the moment, when left-wing and left-leaning ideas will gain very powerful force.

By confronting to comrade Kurmanov’s group, the Power chose second echelon attacking practice. That means that they “influencing” on new comers to achieve avoidance effect. Such model from one side is harming to rapid growth of numbers of social resistance members, and from the other leads to amazing for Kazakhstan unity of the core (those who defied to threats in the second echelon are quickly joining the core). If there will be then or more people identical to Aynur Kurmanov himself along with further strengthening of network type of organizational activities, and they will put Almaty on ears in any favorable moment to them. Physical assassination attempt in the last years and preventive administrative arrests in this is showing of panic and intellectual and organizational impotence of special services – simply for the matter that the effect from all this actions is strictly controversial.

Only one circumstance can calm down the power – that comrade Kurmanov would not play for one or other pretenders on the #1 chair, since he is fighting in his own war. Although a point of pretender’s and Trotskyists’ interests crossing could be found in any moment, and then most diverse options are possible.

The enemy number two is infrastructure (political and media) of runaway banker Mukhtar Ablyazov. Alga! Political party under surveillance of Vladimir Kozlov and media holdings with overall direction of Irina Petrushova are the key containments of this massive. We naming it number two since fighters against regime here are not ideal but mercenaries. If Mr. Ablyazov will say “enough!” and reconciliation of both opposing parties will happen, then the notorious newspaper “Republic” will start writing articles on topic “Nursultan Nazarbayev is the best leader of the nation”.

Apart from political decisions of Mukhtar Ablyazov, his money is critical important. As soon as financing will end, the mercenaries will disperse in seconds. And to keep all this establishments to runaway banker is getting harder and harder through time. Taken away from generous breast of Kazakhstani resources the wallet of Mr. Ablyazov is getting much thinner than it was estimated during the beginning of his infightings with the president. The other thing of importance is corruption among principals of Ablyazov’s infrastructure. Stealing of budget money is typical feature not only among principals of akimat budgets, ministries and national companies. The disease started to be epidemical, capturing also idealess oppositional camp.

If Chair #1 pretendent will find understanding with Mukhtar Ablyazov, then he will get serious enough companion in Almaty. The question is how these personalities, who are by their nature can’t keep word and observe agreements and are unable to celebrate each one’s victory, can possibly agree.

Rakhat Aliev is the third enemy. He is too odious to obtain higher medal place and clearly intellectual invalid. Only the single story with kidnapped bankers, Zholdas Timraliev and Aybas Khasenov, are witnessing about that to the full extent. But precisely by virtue of impossibility to foresee

Potential pretender on chair #1 could go for alliance with Mr. Aliev for the reason of lack of mind, for desperateness (want to sit on it but sees no perspectives from it) or by virtue of overestimation of his abilities. Some could think that he is in competence of managing even a mad man with a grenade in his pocket and a joint pin in the hand.

Concerning OSDP Azat the definition “enemy of the regime” is clearly unsuitable. The management of this organization, which is not played out with Zharmakhan Tuyakbay and Bulat Abilov, has no intensions to make something destructive. They want to get a bigger place near crib, and at least any official acknowledgement. Party is not making anything radical for a long while, pointing itself only by meaningless declarations on informational field.

But for pretender on chair #1 OSDP Azat can appear as a very useful and required resource. If they would agree on a share over the crib, position over the power and congregate on reliable warranties then this organization could easily shot out in many unpredictable combinations.

National patriots are not representing self-sufficient political force by themselves. Both Alga! and OSDP Azat together with the power are “moulding up” both in unity and particularly. After Gaziz Aldamzharov came to management over Communistic Party of Kazakhstan, he too has showed interest to this resource. Every leader and leaderess (and there is no different positions there because everybody there positioning themselves as important persons) of national patriots have their own balance of rational and irrational in heads and behavior, and since that to pick one suitable by price and quality is no a problem. At that we remind that the real political interest in the first stance representing those among others, who are located in Almaty or Astana.

Akezhan Kazhegelding is standing apart. The ex-PM haven’t been on homeland for a long while, and since that he hardly catches its rhythm, but he is certainly a clever and clam, and because of that he is surely have a few variants of actions on one or another case.