A virus of distrust (Year 2009 in review)

By analytical-informational bureau PIK

The Independence Day appeared of some sort of Rubicon – after this National Holiday the state machine and business are falling into New Year eve mode, which in the first case means gradual freezing of any useful activities and in the second as drastic summing of year results, which could mean either rapid advertisement budget development or painful cutting and contriving.

Since the rest part of the society doing nothing but reading newspapers and watching TV (and now the internet is added to this simple list of communication channels), than in this reminded two weeks until New Year it is usual everywhere to sum up the expiring year.

In brief, without thinking too much, we will continue with summing up the political review of year 2009.

Geopolitical maneuvers

You can’t understand the existing situation in Kazakhstani elite without considering a number of outside factors, which are substantially influencing on government’s decisions and shot-term strategies of political and economical nature. Since waves of political processes are arising sometimes from a single step of Nursultan Nazarbayev, an Everest of Kazakhstani establishment of some sorts (taking in account the presidency in OSCE and Path to Europe program it can be called a Mont Blanc of Kazakhstani establishment), and external processes are influencing his decisions in a greater degree rather than internal ones, then we have no moral right to avoid most common geopolitical question in our analysis.

Global financial crisis summoned into life the necessity of solving such questions, which were fantastic as early as yesterday, as global planning and distribution of planet’s resources; by versions of the others, the planet and it’s financial system are moving by this scenario long enough to pass to organizational stage of so-called super-governments, which would unite not particular states under its wise guidance, but whole regions.

One way or another, the Kazakhstani leader decided the most useful, however incomprehensible till the end, participation in one of the acts of this planetary drama – came up with the idea of creation of new worldwide currency. The idea now developed until proposition to establish several regional currencies (and both Russian president Medvedev and UN authorities were participated in discussion of it, which too made proposal about regional currencies). This proposition is not far from the idea of establishment of global confederations; this actually means those same super-governments.

In truth, the followers of version, that in present moment the idea of new redistribution of the world is being realizing, seeing US as the main character, and only sometimes agreeing on such possible option as distribution of the planet between US and China.

In light of such imperial thoughts the initiative of president Nazarbayev appearing as preventive strike supported by Russian and then by UN org-men; and its present incarnation already in image of regional unions with common currencies looks more attractive than the image of some global empire; o two empires, for that matter.

Thus the establishment of Customs Union, in which Russia and Kazakhstan became main characters again, is perceiving somehow different in light of abovementioned conclusions about contradiction of regional confederations idea to Washington-centered planetary empire project. The main disadvantage of US foreign policy, which is not allowing them to dogmatically handle processes in the world as it was before, is lying in serious ideological tests, which are now attacking present democratic form of government, with its disability to stiffly maintain liberal markets.

Besides, this same form sometimes became a lumber for Washington itself, because strict following of democratic procedures acknowledged “once and forever” in US – particularly the necessity of agreement of anti-crisis measures with crowd representatives has already lead to the fact that the moment, when mortgage collapse and its consequences could be redeemed or at least localized, was missed. As the result, the crisis firstly affected US economy, and then very quickly injected in global financial system. Meanwhile, in countries where for of political governance is close to totalitarian or authoritarian, by estimates of various international human rights activists, measures which securing decrease of negative consequences or even absolutely securing whole sectors of economies, where implemented quite swiftly to be appeared as quite effective.

In fine, one can’t saddle up global domination under the slogan “you have no democracy? Then we’re going after you”. Barak Obama, who received Nobel Peace Prize in advance, can turn from American savior, as public opinion sees him now, into its destroyer.

In one word, in international relations field latterly people paying less and less attention on political reputation, which ascribed to one or another state governors, and more – on straight practical benefit, did by them for both their states and global order.

In this case, Nursultan Nazarbayev is irreplaceable as the leader of Kazakhstan for international partners of our country, for principals of transnational corporations which invested millions in our country; the same he has no alternatives in the eyes of most Kazakhstan, who irremovably pointing his surname in vote bulletin.

In one word, despite the cloudy political background on global stage, recently quite sensibly predicted Third global war, and also imperceptible and mysterious processes, in which Kazakhstan by all appearances is acting not only on Russian side, but UN side too, the status and authority of Nursultan Nazarbayev are constantly high in the eyes of his foreign colleagues. And Kazakhstan is still attractive for both businessmen and state authorities of Europe, Asia and America.

Kazakhstani elite today: activists of year 2009

The situation inside the state is more difficult. Necessary non-change of the president, which people readily proved on elections until now, resulted some stagnation in elite. Until now the main source of tensions in elite and seemingly the only person which performed functioning of mechanism of natural selection in this hilarious pit, was Rakhat Aliev, who redistributed property of Kazakhstani establishment in his favour.

However, global financial and internal economical crisis altogether lead to sharp narrowing of the number of profitable markets, crash of recently successful sectors, which in its stance accelerated this same natural selection, or in other words, to new redistribution of property. But this is impossible without redistribution of power authorizations, supervisory and surveillance functions. This game, in which the most influential elite factions got involved (and became noticeable in a second), was mixed with another important factor – hopes to got the lead in Kazakhstan after Nursultan Nazarbayev. And for that reason one have to gain control over governmental management and major financial resources. Thus, two tasks – to supply before-crisis profit rates and to shape as much close to high powers to have time to get it, can be made in the same way.

And this path was used by few groups in the same time this year. We will observe them briefly.

Kulibayev-Masimov group. Had advantage on the start, expressed in full control over the government and local mayors and almost full control over National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna. They haven’t lost control in 2009, but it can’t be said that they extended their influence. In financial sector, despite the crisis, they couldn’t get full control over Samruk financial flows, as the result the only hero of it, Kairat Kelimbetov, who is not in the clan, is subject of massive informational attack from mass-media affiliated with this group. The point is clear – to put one of them on the post of the Fund’s principal.

Vladimir Ni group. In 2009 it had no attempts to gain more political influence. The group rather lost some of its influence, if to trust information given by runaway Aliev-Shoraz. Generally, the only goal of this group is clearly can be traced – demotion of Kairat Kelimbetov, which agreeing with the same aspiration of Kulibayev-Masimov group. Since the main political resource of this group is the ability to strive for audience of Nursultan Nazarbayev himself and influence his decisions as far as possible – then tactics in this case is being chosen quite simply: Kairat Kelimbetovis exposed under obstruction in mass-media, which are under control of the group, after which the negative information is brightly given to the First.

However, such maneuvers were successful, when the man convinced had, by all appearances, similar plans about one or another question, which is now is not observing. Those waves of accusations (in some things quite fair), which were already bathed in the address of Kelimbetov, would appear enough to any other representative of state governance. But the chairman of Samruk is still holding his duties; that means that the First seeing him in such way.

Komsomol men or «komsuks». This is the name of state authorities, who are united by common interests and graduated the school of Communists’ organization in Soviet past. They were activated by the end of the year; at least, only the end of the year followed by noticeable assignment of one of representatives of this society – Nurlan Nigmatullin, former mayor of Karaganda district. He took place of first deputy of the chairman of People’s Democratic Party Nur Otan; in present times the key post, allowing to control both the government (by means of constructive criticism) and Lower Chamber of Parliament through party list, any member of which can be recalled and replaced by more manageable person. Imangali Tasmagambetov, the other noticeable representative of this unity, even though stayed on Astana mayor post, however suffered many unpleasant moments during 2009, connected to accusations of press.

Southern. United by common place of birth – the southern regions of the country – this group of high state officials has such people over its numbers, as deputy of Lower Chamber Sat Tokpakbayev (Republic newspaper considers him as one of the leaders of this influential clan), and also head of the department of presidential affairs Sarybay Kalmurzaev, General Prosecutor Kairat Mami, first vice-premier Umirzak Shukeyev, Customs Control Committee chairman under Ministry of Finance Kozy-Korpesh Karbuzov and again, calling to the Republic, “a number of other high-ranked officials and businessmen”. It appeared itself quite recently, during the clash between NSC officers and Financial Police officers, which is controlled by Southerns. Some episodes of this war were followed by arrest under negative appeal of deputy of the key department of financial police – Almaty – followed by contrary reaction, and the head of NSC Shabdarbayev was forced to resign. However it is too early to say that this action was finished by strengthening of the Southern – Amangeldy Shabdarbayev become advisor to the president (therefore, was designated and covered in shadow from intrusive press in the same time), and his place was taken by his first deputy Adil Shayakhmetov. Allegedly as proof that former line of CNS functioning wouldn’t change, the arguable case of M. Dzhalishev was submitted to court and not closed, as was desired obviously to his wife Zhamilya Dzhakisheva, who played major role in attack on Shabdarbayev reputation.

Thus, on this point we can’t put a period on this, but dots; and the situation also looks threatening to Southern clan itself.

Games played by people. Mental-psychological climate in the country.

Why there are concerns on further blossom or, at least, keeping high ambitions of the Southern clan? Let’s start from the point, that “capturing CNS” action, which goal was removal from power over the Committee of National Security of Shabdarbayev and his men, and putting a man not simply loyal to Southern into free chair of head of most powerful security structure in the country, but one of them (rumors in the society bring the name of Kalmurzayev, present head of the department of presidential affairs and former head of financial police); and then, this action, by all appearances, had failed. Amangeldy Shabdarbayev not only included into close circles – he became the advisor to president. On the post of the head of CNS is Shabdarbayev’s faithful follower and his former first deputy. Consequently, the strike back would be natural.

Under such, which might burrow the imperial aspirations of the Southern for a long time, goes recently expanded protest action of national patriots in the country against several initiatives, said by the state: cloudy story with giving China 1 million of hectares of cultivable areas; even more cloudy “Doctrine of National Unity”, which promoting a new idea of Kazakhstani; and in the end the Customs Union; in what connection the protests against the last one are enforced by sophisticated logics that predicting loss of sovereignty.

The protest wave started from Mukhtar Shakhanov and his statement against Doctrine of National Unity, proposed by Nursultan Nazarbayev on 15th Session of Assembly of the Nation of Kazakhstan. The statement has ended with ultimatum: “if the power wouldn’t stop doubtful doctrine of National Unity” (Kazakhstani Nation), proposed by illegal Assembly of the Nation of Kazakhstan, which is not existing in any other state, until 17 of December 2009, and acting as a second parliament; if it wouldn’t solve our 10 demands, which were recognized on the 20th of September in the Republic hall supported by 4 thousand men, especially about inaction on State Language and on opening of a TV channel functioning 24/7 on State Language, I and citizens objective to annihilation of the nation and language, are embarking on hunger strike”. The ultimatum was announced on 26 of November of expiring year, and until 17 of December was overgrown with other demands – for instance, to not sell Kazakhstani land to China. In the end, the Customs Union fell there also, which angered internet community has already agreed to consider as the end of the Independency and the beginning of accession to the convention with Russia in the eve of Independence Day, and etc.

In the end, the hunger strike hasn’t take place. On 15th of December there was statement that national patriots leaded by the head of Memlekettyk Tyl Social Movement Mukhtar Shakhanov said about canceling of massive hunger strike actions. By the opinion of Shakhanov, the power had listened to their appeal and promised to implement it. I happened, however, behind the scenes, because in the same reports in the name of the power were only comments of the Deputy of Chairman of the Assembly of the Nation of Kazakhstan Eraly Togzhanov.

Thus, in his words, the secretary office of the assembly of the nation of Kazakhstan stopped the Doctrine discussions until national patriots would present their own alternative option of the document; which must have happened until 20 of January of 2010, but hasn’t happened.

However, except this document, which follows from the words of the same Togzhanov, other alternative projects would be considered in the Assembly. “He also have received the propositions of Ak Zhol party. We will also evaluate it. And, obviously, will take their wishes into account”, — Togzhanov stated the example of the alternative sources of Doctrine of National Unity. The promises were given also by the deputy of the Assembly’s chairman. One of the sharpest questions, the selling land to China, was allegedly transferred into milded field – they speaking about rental and establishing of Kazakhstani-Chinese agricultural joint ventures; however, long-term rental and selling from the point of human life is all the same thing.

Thus, Mukhtar Shakhanov’s avoidance of promised hunger strike is obvious, but not for the reason that he don’t want to. Most likely, such result was supposed earlier, when action of defiance was only meant to be – as a regular operation of loosing a protest vapor. However, in the end everything almost went out of control.

Because protest meeting near Independence monument has happened; Muktar Shakhanov, who appeared before the crowd, had operated with agreeing rhetoric, summoned to calmness; but the crowd was heated by other, unfamiliar communities, orators which by observations of journalists who had been there, wasn’t obeyed to common logics, which were Shakhanov and other from opposition tried to bind.

In the same day a group of young men, which was moving on the square, was arrested under the formal conviction on wrong street passage. Nervousness of law-enforcing bodies is at hand, because arrested allegedly haven’t screamed slogans and didn’t breached civil order.

In one word, somebody breached into someone’s combination of nationally concerned citizens appeasement from one side and giving the present authorities international stability stronghold and almost transferred it into pogrom, vandalism and chaos of disordered crowd. And somebody in the society has already come up with a version that behind this action the shadows of Southern were noticed. Such convictions – as the attempt to organize a disorder – can put a cross over the Southern clan influences.

Moral-psychological climate: Are we going to the point of boiling?

The moral-psychological climate in a collective is a concept actually innovative for our times. The research of moral-psychological climate in collective subordinated to it can give an entrepreneur actually complete picture of thing which are hindering to productive work – intrigues, useless top-management, office wars and etc.

However, which is good for a company is good for the country, because moral-psychological climate in a society needs a constant control, research and forming. Moral settings of the society, social ideals, ethnical and psychological frames of behavior are depending from the state. In a state, where this sphere is on its own, clear fluctuations are observed. As it is on us, where, for instance, ability to go without priority, not giving place to a woman, spitting nasway under foot, throwing trash past a garbage, to pick a state or private pocket – is not considered as shameful or scandalous.

In opposite, some diseases are finding silent or noisy approval.

That’s why our society is not touched by rumors about dirty and even dirtier action, which are reaching from the Olympus. However, blatant impudence and clownery of nouveau riches, appareled with state power, calling for more internal protests on places, which is breaking through yet thanks to careful organizations of such breakthroughs. Games similar to described above can lead the society, more high moral by its definition then an elite corrupted by power, until the point of no return. And rebellion summoned by this can flow in most unpredictable directions – not necessarily fall into interethnic mess filed.

Political inhibitors prepared for such cases – so-called oppositional leaders – are already can’t handle the tasks of influencing massive conscience. And when the crowd would go mad, the best they can do is to lead the process or seat somewhere in safety. But keeping people calm or lead them to their hoses – hardly.

Our moral-psychological climate is poisoned by virus of total distrust – to power, politicians and to each other. When distrust would became hatred is the question of time