Nabucco: the reality of a myth

By Sergey ABAKSHIN

— Rabinovitch, why do you need so much money? Whe are on the way to communism, are we?

— It is needed! How would I get back?

A joke from developed socialism era

There are not enough resources for all in a modern world, and since that the struggle for owning it is sharpening. This concerns natural gas in full measure. Everyone wants to have something from a “blue fuel” and this is in addition that traders, buyers and transportations sometimes have exactly opposite interests. And for the reason that gas is a strategic resource, it is integral in big politics.

Nabucco is the opera of Italian composer Giuseppe Verdi, after which he became worldwide famous. The plot is based on Jews’ imprisonment by Babylonians, their trials and affranchise. By the idea of Western geopoliticans, Nabucco pipeline is supposed to set free Caspian gas from captivity of Russian pipelines and give him liberty, i.e. on European Union market avoiding Russian territories.

Russian is still suffers hard times, on which reason its president Dmitriy Medvedev reported pretty sincerely in his internet blog and appearance before the Federal Assembly. But to jump into a future, it’s necessary to push away from something. For Moscow it is oil, gas and pipelines. If to remember recent events, than in roaring 90’s precisely these three whales allowed Russian to get through challenging, in terms of politics and socio-economics, times. Then they again increased state income for almost five times in period of global prices growth of energy carriers and gave resources for social injections and geopolitical games.

Concerning Kazakhstan, then because of its pipelines Russia will have an influence on it even when last ethnical Russian would leave from here (if it leaves). The pipeline system, inherited from USSR, has Russian Federation as its central core. During 90’s Russia paid for transit of its oil and gas by Baltic countries and Ukraine territory $600 million per year. With Putin came to the power Kremlin started to change its frame of references.

Objects of Baltic Pipeline System (BPS), downplaying roles of Latvia and Lithuania in transit of Russian (and Central Asian) energy carriers, Sukhodolnaya-Rodionovskaya section, which is allowing avoiding Ukrainian territory, and Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), called upon directions of additional volumes of Kazakhstani oil through Russia, became strategic directions of pipeline theater of operations. Every certain project has its own purpose, but with that it works for a single purpose – strengthen of independency and increase of country’s weight in oil and gas sector issues.

Moscow generally solved questions with Baltic countries. And after Finland and Sweden agreed on Northern Flow route, the importance of post-Soviet and new-European Baltic as transitory of hydrocarbons pursued a minimal mark.

It is much more complicated with Ukraine. In 2004 Kremlin has lost battle for Kiev, after which Belarusian “batka” Alexander Lukashenko started to show even more instability. The West rejected all of its democratic bugaboos and promising to understand and forgive everything concerning Minsk, if it would listen to Brussels and Washington. However, the West too has losses. The rapprochement of Russia and Germany has sharply decreased Russian geopolitical and geo-economical expenses. Berlin tired to nurture the rest of Europe and hear reminders of its Nazi past (especially from Poland) instead of gratitude. Along with that, Germany has genetically learned that it is very dangerous to mess with Russia.

It is not far to seek for historical analogues. In 20’s of 20th century Germany was much weaker then Russia today; but weakness is not an everlasting feature. Because of that in case of Berlin-Moscow axle it is simply the strong one is agreeing with strong one. But there are other strong players, of which the Nabucco project reminds.

The Nabucco pipeline, continuing down to 3300 km, is supposed to supply gas from Caspian region to Austria through Turkey and Balkans. The pipeline, worth around 7.9 billion Euros, would start functioning in 2014. Its maximum carrying capacity is amount to 31 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

Obviously, the same Berlin has nothing against the Nabucco, if the project suddenly will be realized. However, Germany is not in a number of pipeline “pushers”. Concerning the Americans, then they are continuing the policy, which was started with Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). The commercial profit from that project was doubtful even in the period of high oil prices, and today it is aggravated even more. The more that Kazakhstan finally didn’t give those volumes to the pipeline, which were emissary from Washington, had strived for.

It is worth to do justice to American strategists’ consistency of applied forces. BTC was finally built and started functioning. But it has the same story as with TRACECA transport corridor, the road from Europe in China through Caucasus and Central Asia beyond Russia. It is allegedly exists, but took very small segment in international transportations. Transportations from Kazakhstan are using it only as a bargain factor during communications with Russian logistic companies, because there is no reason to carry a cargo through many customs, where single Azerbaijan one can lead to suicide.

Now it’s the Nabucco turn, taking in account currently building Southern flow, where the main participant is Russian Gazprom. Who needs Nabucco, despite Brussels, Washington and Ankara, when China, capable to afford any volumes which hypothetically Astana can supply, is so close to Kazakhstan?

Ak Orda is being seduced by the fact, that Turkmen are already signed for Nabucco. But first it is worth to take a look on the map. During gas transportation through Nabucco Turkmenistan is delivered from the necessity to pay Kazakhstan transit fees. If Ashgabat would decide to send blue fuel on Chinese market, then it couldn’t avoid transit fees in favor to Astana. Along with that, not seriously mentioning the solidity of Turkmen top’s promises. From the times of Saparmurad Niyazov, changing positions to 180 degrees is normal in its international politics.

On this point it is worth to pay respect for Western politicians. They are promoting the Nabucco consistently and purposefully. They are already started to set peace between Armenia and Turkey, between which there are 1.5 million of Armenians butchered by Turks in 1915. According to Armenian version it is pure genocide, and to Turkish one Armenians were had that coming. And even in this question it is needed to understand the limit of Washington’s opportunities. The same situation is with Arabs and Jews, which are supposing to reconcile, and have terrorist attacks and helicopter strikes in the next moment. And another issue: Caucasus is not Central Asia. The scales of the regions are incomparable.

Taking all of American and European thoroughness, in this profile they have as much amount of work as a snow shoveling in Antarctica. It could be not enough forces even for Caucasian sector of whole field of operations. Even about single Uzbekistan, the important gas player, there are more questions than answers. Tashkent is extremely badly relating to gas transit payments. And if it used to Buxoro-Ural route by virtue of historical reasons, then Chinese (through Kazakhstan) and Nabucco (through Turkmenistan) directions are topical for it even mentally, plus by technical and economical reasons.

Whatever it is, but Astana is given with good chance by realization of Russian pipeline politics, and it is very important now to play precisely. Moscow expansion on Pacific Rim markets, first of all to China, is sharply raising question about resource base. The modern conditions of Russian oil development aren’t allowing to extensively moving large volumes to the East without losses in the West. At that, the necessity of capturing of a powerful base in Pacific Rim is obvious in light of long-term perspectives. Russian can get additional volumes of oil to supply contracts in Europe only in Central Asia.

Kazakhstani hydrocarbons are very important in Russian plans, and since that allowing communicating with Moscow on an even exchange of resources. Oil and gas importance of Astana is only enforcing its geopolitical essence for Russia. After that, when American economical empire started to fall apart, Ak Orda is quite naturally nodded to Russian and Chinese side. But China is objectively frightening Kazakhstan – it is too big and mentally different, with its huge demographic pressure. For that reason Moscow once again is in priority of Astana – it is mild and predictable; including for the reason of splitting oil and gas takings.