Post-Nazarbayev Kazakhstan

Analytic-informational bureau PIK

What would be in Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev? The question is getting on the agenda and becoming more and more urgent. This topic wasn’t raised earlier because it considered as the attempt on the presidential power authority, so to say, “unlawful interference” into presidential institution. Since then many things have changed; particularly, it become clear that the highest Republic official change is not far off. Even if Nazarbayev will live till 100 years (and we sincerely wish him so), it’s unlikely he will still be the head of Kazakhstan. Power handling is difficult issue, requiring a lot of strength and as we know Nursultan Nazarbayev heads the Republic of Kazakhstan from the 1990 year, plus the experience of being the First Secretary of the Communistic Party Central Committee in 1989—1991 years and the experience at the Cabinet Council Chairmanship of the Kazakh Soviet Republic in 1984—1989 years. At any measures 25 years at the highest authority positions is a lot, taking into consideration the fact that the first president of the Republic of Kazakhstan bechanced with extremely hard task of creating the new country. In any case it will be either delegation or distribution of the power.

So Kazakhstan changeover to post-Nazarbayev period is the matter of course in a determinate sense. What character the process will be: long-run and progressive or fast and impetuous – is outside our confines. Certain mechanism and the way of Kazakhstan transformation are not definite yet and it’s untimely to talk about it. Largely it will be determined by Nursultan Nazarbayev himself and would not be correct to anticipate his decisions.

However it’s time now to discuss some principal issues of Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev which are related to all Republic citizens, particularly the politically active ones.

The risks of transformation

Some would think that at the first sight there’s no problem. The first president will show the form and way of power authority transformation which he thinks are optimal and everything will happen in the scheme work out by him. The power will smoothly transfer from the first president to his successors and there wouldn’t be any specific perturbations.

We can accept this partly, but it cannot be matched that according to the opinion we underestimate a number of some principal things. First of all, as it was repeatedly said yet, any successor, even if he’s ideal, will be non-equivalent substitute for the first president, because he knowingly has no the same charisma, influence and prestige as Nursultan Nazarbayev has. This situation creates the temptation for political opponents to press on at the weaker, in comparison with the first president, successor and force him to compromises. Such kind of power redistribution can provoke unpredictable political processes.

Secondly, we cannot ignore the fact that Kazakhstan has political ideology aiming to the whole political structure dismantling created by Nursultan Nazarbayev. NSDP Azat political party leaders are the most famous ideologists. As for today they are a kind of political marginal persons without any chance to be in the action. Their arms are short to break the political system of the first president. In conditions of post-Nazarbayev Kazakhstan their possibilities will significantly grow. They will have a chance to capture some groups of Kazakhstani people by their ideology, particularly those who politically unstable and suggestible. The result can be catastrophic if their plans are realized.

Thirdly, there’s definite threat of erosion the ideological and political heritage of Nursultan Nazarbayev under the pressure of new worries and tasks that would be continuously weaken the most important state institutions of the Republic of Kazakhstan. New leadership can make different changes into the institutions without any consideration with the main idea laid at their basis. Political system provided Kazakhstan with the jerk from USSR wreckages to the recognized country, supplied with serious economical growth as well as the piece and calmness, whose potential is far from exhausting; can be detuned, destroyed and undermined in result.

Fourthly, there’s a danger to make opposite deviation – first president’s political experience dogmatization, building it up to the absolute, which would block further country development.

In another words, there are enough threats within the transformation Kazakhstan into post-Nazarbayev period and it would be foolish not to take it into the account.

What it’s like to be?

Prior to decide, what shall we do and how, it would be better to understand the most desirable things for Kazakhstan of post-Nazarbayev period.

The list can be done the following way:

1. The strengthening of the Republic of Kazakhstan;

2. Keeping the current foreign policy positions at the present level as well as new ones acquisition;

3. Kazakhstan economical development, withdrawal from natural resources based economic model;

4. Constant growth of Kazakhstani population well-being;

5. Social stability; revolutionary changes and repartition absence;

6. Creation of the efficient social lift and personnel moving-out system as well as forming of responsible political elite;

7. The rights and freedoms strengthening, democratic institutions and political parties system development;

8. Interethnic dialogue and cooperation development;

9. State language implementation into the wide usage;

10. National culture, science and education development.

We think there’s no any objection to the list; moreover they are presented at the political parties’ programs in one form or another.

However we need to make the important remark on non-absolutization of every item from the list or non-opposing one item to another as it’s done by some oppositional political parties, for instance. All items are equally important; Kazakhstani stable development depends on progress at every of abovementioned areas and it must be provided at post-Nazarbayev period.

The contribution from the first president.

What has the greater role in the list of the first president’s achievements?

First of all it’s the item 1 — the strengthening of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Who do we need to learn on the Republic strengthening but the man who did created the Republic? That’s why the state building at the post-Nazarbayev period will decisively depend from his experience.

Further, the item 2 is on the foreign policy Kazakhstan positions. The experience of our first president is also will be decisive, because exactly under his leading the wide international recognition of Kazakhstan has taken its place as well as the entrance to international political life, recognition of our leading positions into Central Asia region. This list can be added by such important great historical fact as nuclear disarmament. Kazakhstani foreign policy in post-Nazarbayev period will be based on the achievements of the first president and develop onto the following to built up direction.

The item 3 also depends from the experience of the first president who has shaped current economy of independent Kazakhstan and its main basics. The influence of this economical model will be perceptible for a long time; it must be closely studied and thoroughly considered within the decision making process, at any programs and conceptions. Meanwhile there’s no other economics created and developed yet, so Nazarbayev model will work, but the destruction of it without substitution is heedlessness.

The item 4 is on the citizens’ well-being. There are a lot of things to learn from the first president at this point; he had been deciding this task in extremely hard conditions of the ending of the 90’s years and the beginning of the 00’s years, before the economical reforms’ first results appeared to be. It should be said he has done many things; for instance, GDP has grown at 1.7 times, poverty level has lowered into 2 times, estimated lifetime has grown into 2.9 times.

Item 5. Kazakhstan is the one of few countries among former USSR republics which hadn’t: great social shocks, civil wars, “coloured revolutions” and other “flowers” of social instability. Huge contribution to this situation has done by the first president of Kazakhstan.

Item 6. Here is the less success than it would like to, the problem of Kazakhstani political elite formation hasn’t solved yet in total. However Nazarbayev has such great ideas in the personnel policy sphere as “Code of honor of civil service officials of the Republic of Kazakhstan”, the agency for civil service affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Bolashak program etc. It shouldn’t be abandoned to excessive criticism, because the creation of social lift and personnel policy development won’t grow at the empty place but only in accordance with the achievements and gathered experience.

The item 8 is on interethnic dialogue. Kazakhstan is the exception from usual post-soviet space at this question also, we hadn’t great interethnic conflicts. President worked out and created the system providing the rights of different ethnic groups and making interethnic dialogue possible; the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan appeared as the important element of such dialogue.

So, seven items from abovementioned 10 decisively depends from the experience of the first president and his achievements. Actually it can be said that approximately 70% of all decisions, initiatives, projects, conceptions etc. will be accepted according to Nursultan Nazarbayev experience. Naturally, it’s only superficial survey; it can be seriously widened, deepened and detailed. It shows us what a great contribution was made by our first president; it shows us that Kazakhstan of post-Nazarbayev period will follow the way passed through by Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Directions of further changes

At the basis of made analysis it can be easily judged what spheres of Kazakhstani life after Nazarbayev will stay more or less permanent in some observable period and what spheres most likely will be changed within the transforming processes. It is very approximate evaluation, of course. It’s difficult to make more precise evaluation because it’s just a look at the horizon and most probably the part of newly-emerging tendencies won’t be matched.

The largest priority spheres of transformation processes in Kazakhstan at post-Nazarbayev period can be considered as:

— Social policy; which will include the search and development of the most effective and appropriate methods on making complex social problems decisions, according to a new conditions;

— Political parties sphere; which would match the appearance of new and disappearance of the old ones, intensive ideological struggle, the strengthening role of the Parliament and political parties policies in the context of elections;

— The rights and freedoms sphere; its evolution will be connected with the communication development, wide range education of the population in the sphere of rights defense, as well as the creation of human rights structures and coalitions of new age;

— Commodity and industrial production sphere, as well as the related spheres of science and education; which will form the core of non-raw-material economy of the Republic.

These are for today the main directions of Kazakhstan development in post-Nazarbayev period.