Kazakhstan has screwed up everybody

By PIK Analytical Informational Bureau

Abstinence is the ally of the nature and guard of the health

Abu al Faradz

Any source can be used for both benefit and damage. Fortune has turned its back to Astana in the most inappropriate moment; and multi-vector policy, wealth and passion to participate in international organizations have started to play against it. The facts are indicative, speaking that Kazakhstan has annoyed many, and some don’t like it. And there is a reason to unlike it, trying to look at things from position of irritated.

“Multi-vectorness” was worked for geopolitical piggy-bank of Astana for such a long time, that many got the illusion like that sort of things would last forever. And then 08.08.08 rolled around; and even before it, a sleeping pain spots of Eurasia put onto itself with renewed vigor. After Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia independency, the productive field for multi-vector policy has sharply decreased.

Kazakhstan didn’t recognized gone away lands of Georgia, purely because of the instinct of territorial self-preservation. Indeed, the Republic of Kazakhstan in its modern territory is the result of USSR divorce formula in 1991. If to start reconsideration of basic rules, then all construction can be destructed with domino effect. In this point, Ak Orda is not together with Kremlin; but with whom?

Astana and Moskow are in CSTO; however, Kazakhstani side is to buy NATO air defense and air space control, artillery from Israel, developing military technical cooperation with US. As the result, Russia can’t rely on Kazakhstan as an ally with all confidence in case of emergency situation, and Kremlin is hardly has an illusions on this subject.

But for the West, Ak Orda is an alien too. As the result of efforts to weaken Russia’s influence in Central Asia region and to prevent strengthening of China, Washington and Brussels were reluctant to consider with Kazakhstani molestations. In light of coming presidency of Kazakhstan in OSCE in 2010, the West has to tolerate immodest clownery: single-party parliament, censure law on the Internet, illegal chase against human right activists and journalists; and now the events to give Nursultan Nazarbayev lifetime presidency without any elections.

Because of geopolitical and economical (oil) interests, US and EU will swallow all of this, but bad aftertaste will certainly remind. It is obvious that Astana is not sharing political and conceptual valuations of the West even formally. Kazakhstan is literally killing international democracy institutions such as OSCE, already discredited with double standard policy, with an insurance shot in the head. How can anyone possibly tell that OSCE is the forum of civilized countries, which promoting ideas of freedom and democracy, if it has absolute power monarchy at its presidency, with all following arrangement of political attributes, including censure in World Wide Web?

Oil, uranium and natural gas transportation routes, alternative to Russian and Iranian, are required by the West, but it also needs some evidences of civilized society, because it has public opinion. And that’s where Astana once again put its feet on the wounds of its Western partners. Big time policy is the business of elites, because it’s bounded with big money. But it is enforcing by common people. And that’s where bureaucrats from Washington and Brussels are endlessly stressed with their cooperation with partners from Kazakhstan.

Western VIP’s are too want to steal money from taxpayers, fall into alcoholic and sexual sins, shut mouths of unwanted newspapers and NGO’s, suppress protest actions with force. But they can manage it only inasmuch as it is allowed by rival groups in their struggle for power, and civil society. Being under Damocles’ sword of civil control for every day, they are very angry that everything they are dreaming of is allowed only for the people of some state in the middle of Eurasia.

Satraps of Ak Orda are so easily breaking their publically given promises, than sometimes Western authorities and diplomats are falling into prostration. They have no any effective levers of influence here. Also it is necessary to bear in mind, that Western elite are skint bums, compared to Kazakhstani ones. Pimpish luxury of colleagues from Astana is always blatantly demonstrated, making Western Europeans and Americans even more nervous.

And to the West from Kazakhstani border, China has problems in Western Turkistan (Xinjiang), also couldn’t be so sure in anything concerning Astana whether it is oil transportation, railway pavement to Caspian Sea with China width between rails, or help in counteractions against Uyghur organization. Certain groups within the political power in Beijing are considering the fact, that ethnical Uyghur holding post of prime minister of Kazakhstan, as a challenge.

Kyrgyzstan is relating to Kazakhstan as to a reach brother, from whom it continuously begging for support, whereas it can offer it by itself. Bishkek couldn’t solve water and energy problems with Uzbekistan one-on-one, and periodically offering party to Astana to lower the bottom of Tashkent. But Ak Orda behave itself in “wait-and-see” way. Allegedly such behavior is explainable, but when somebody saying neither solid “yes” or “no” from year to year, such position is starting to be annoying on some stage.

Concerning Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is depressed by “loser complex” after losing leadership for Central Asia region. Tashkent is far less interesting to transnational companies; its political regime has no resources to communicate with its population with carrot policy – only stick. Just as worldwide and regional players are looking on Astana with only question “is there something to feed?” the looks on Uzbekistan in the first stance are containing fears on its activity, because the scales of potential destabilization on vast territory are simply throwing any competent experts in cold sweat.

Even eternally neutral Turkmenistan has pretensions to Astana, including its Caspian position. Shared its Caspian sector shelf with Russia, Kazakhstan uses Ashkhabad as some kind of bumper between itself and Iran. Turkmen elite would be happy to switch places with Kazakhstan, but geography and history will never give it such a chance. Plus the expenses on Turkmen gas transit, which are additional income and political pressure lever on its neighbor in the same time.

Jews and arabs are ramming each other in Middle East; India and Pakistan are in constant tensions about Kashmir; and China have problems with Uyghurs and Tibetans. All these events have powerful religious background, and there is no light by the end of a tunnel. And then they hear statements from Astana – please come to our forum, we will teach you on how to live in a friendship. And this peacemaking- negotiating mission has started to annoy many, too.

The world has changed, and Astana has to dance to new tunes. As the opposite, yesterday’s dividends can turn into damage on strategic directions. Generally, the story with Kazakhstani bank system could be repeated: the system, which was spoken and thought as the most advanced on post-Soviet space, and then turns out to be half-life-time-bomb and bloody headache for economic and policy machines of the country.