Administrative blindness blossom

Article is contributed by PIK analytical informational bureau

“In era of advanced technologies ineffectiveness is a most terrible sin in the face of God”

Aldous Huxsley

A wind of changes from halls of Ak Orda (White Horde) started to blow such violently, so many people couldn’t have a clue – it is a wind, and not any draft, and precisely “of changes”. The epoch of stealing managers has come to its logical end, but it is unclear, who would replace the old guard of the president behind the wheel of governmental machine. Sure, the “agashkas” depleted their resource being within the power – from one side, they are to archaic for more complicating modern world, and from the other, their age is pushing them. By laws of physiology all of them are in the age of transition – from our world to another.

Party nomenclature was appeared at the head of the republic very timely. When Soviet Union disappeared from political world map and its former parts went to independent voyage, this group of governmental authorities practically had no rivals in struggle for power in Kazakhstan. But the “agashkas” have generic aspect: they can’t propose anything breaking-through. If we put an analogy with automobile, then “agashka” can handle already made car and make it more comfortable for him, but he can’t put together a new one.

And the times of screaming 90’s were rough. Then Nursultan Nazarbayev had summoned “young Turks” to the power. He judged that technocrats, people with fine and prestigious Moskow and St.Petersburg education and projective thinking can qualitatively improve the situation. The “agashkas” have procedure way of thinking, so from year to year they can replace speedbumps in the city they were entrusted with, but they can’t sort out what overhead street-crossings are about. This is their fate. Projective way of thinking is a chain “target-objective-resources for a implementation – results. For such administrative authorities have much wider passage way.

Young Turki showed different results in areas entrusted for them. From plain-spoken losing in performance of Serik Burkitbayev (went in prison after holding post of the head of KazMunaiGas) until successful, as it was with Mukhtar Jakishev (who is arrested after been head of KazAtomProm). But their generic feature was failing to set apart their own pocket from governmental one. Being despoiled with competent governmenta control, governmental managers made them reach too rapidly, even within eastern rates of corruption.

There is unofficial formula in Russia: an authority was arrested because he took bribes uncomparable with his post. With all seeming monstrosity of such phenomena it has its own logics. A bureaucrat is making his career with clear understanding of the limits of allowable. If you want to have more income, than show yourself from positive side, and you will be given with post with a new level of “status rent payment”. This way is similar to a mine field, but that’s why the “agashkas” are handling country’s business, because they passed it in the Soviet times without exploding themselves.

Young Turki were clearly overestimated levels of allowed, given for their managing talents. That’s why they are now being publically punished. Possibly, their expulsion of this category of people from main echelons of governmental management would be happened later, but Kazakhstan is strongly involved in global economy. On the 15 of September turns a year since Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the beginning of global economic crisis. Right after this a black swan flies in the republic. Black swan is a nature creation, similar to albino, but controversially because of melanosis. Speaking generally, it can’t be happened, but it is.

It seems that deliberate declining of possibility of large scale crises, or at least its understatement, is a part of human nature. “Impossible” of “everything would be not so worse” are two magical formulas that people are relying on. But among Kazakhstani officials it became excessive. Everybody were cradled by “oil will write off and help anywhere” formula, so after beginning of the crisis they felled into catatonia for a long time. Meanwhile swarms of black swans landed on their native landscapes: bankruptcy of banks and runaway of banker together with bank money, blow of realty bubble, growth of unemployment, deficit of practically any infrastructure, decrease of oil dollars flow, lack of domestic production of consumer goods and many other things.

And on this point Young Turki were tackled all out, sometimes pitching too strong. But it’s important to understand educative component of the process. Guilty are being punished as an example to show others – there is no point of return to olden days. And everybody from bureaucracy to private business and civil sector caught the trick generally, but the demoralizing thing is that nobody has explained the new way.

Bolashak scholars (young people who were educated in western universities) had been moved to change Young Turki. But still, their faults are visible with a naked eye. They are full of knowledge and ideas, which are natural to US of EU (or were so before the financial crisis), but pointless being used on local scene. Nobody yet showed positive example of adaptation of this whole intellectual equipment in Kazakhstan. Maybe it’s because of the lack of knowing local specifics, or mature and social experience, or both.

State entering in BTA and Alliance banks capitals gave nothing positive. Deposits of individuals and entities are recalled, the work quality of such financial structures is falling down. Mukhtar Ablyazov and Margulan Seysembaev are free, as if they have no connection to excessive foreign loans. State functionaries from National Bank and Agency on Financial Control also got no punishment for their guilt. And nobody can give clear answer, why National Fund just wasted billions of dollars for nothing. The majority of independent observers are inclining to the opinion that it is worth to wait for bankruptcy of troublesome banks, and then start again from a blank page.

The problems of financial sector are only the part of massive amount of difficulties, which should be fought by governmental bodies. Such bodies are consisting of people, but yet there is no shaped group of administrators, who could solve difficult questions successfully. Much finance from various deposits was already wasted, but everything we can see now is retraction of unpleasant resolution. People are spending their money, which was treasured by them in the period of economic growth, and looking to coming days with growing awareness.

Neither private business nor NGO’s can replace bodies of state control by their purposes. They have absolutely different goals. The other business is that entrepreneurs and social organizations can act as allies, if they could be interested and proposed with productive type of relations for all. But state authorities still have to be a locomotive. The faster bureaucracy machine will propose new candidates, who could potentially lead the country to gain financial health and effective development; the better will be for all. Nobody can guarantee that Kazakhstan would not be visited by new bunches of black swans, or they will grow innit. The time now is such, that nobody can be insured from anything. And time has become most important and valuable asset.