Kazakhstani opposition and psychological fatigue syndrome

Alisher SAGADIEV

Opposition is tomorrow's reactionary
Adrian Decourcelle

Mass support of the nation is still the unreachable dream of Kazakhstani opposition. Being not in powers to gain needed political weight and staying as small carnivore, opposition acts itself as the skunk which trying to avoid jaws of the greater. But it's nothing but scares the electorate, which psychologically tired from both the Power and opposition.

Last news from opposition field is intention of NSDP (Nationwide Social Democratic Party), Communistic Party of Kazakhstan (CPK) and non-registered Alga! party to merge into For Fair Kazakhstan! (FFK) coalition. While been in the similar coalition the oppositionists were crashed on the presidential elections in 2005, nominating united candidate Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, who is the present leader of NSDP.

Tuyakbay himself has a different view on 2005 model of FFK and considers that «it has worked in full advance». «It worked and we won in 2005! Our victory was stolen, so what can we say? We didn't go for the extremeties to protest to defend our own victory, is another reason». — He said on the press-conference dedicated to a new view on the same old coalition.

The antinomy of the situation is that the country has both the united opposition and Azat party, which don't want to unite. Herewith, Azat has most grand resources (finance, mass-media, and organization abilities) between all of oppositional parties. Another surprise was that NSDP and Azat has been talk about union and kind of found understanding, and then this coalition emerged. Coalitions at all become obsession, particularly for Alga and CPK, which are going to join FFK while being in Narodovlastie (Power of Nation) coalition. And legislation of Kazakhstan prohibits to go for elections by coalition, only by separate parties.

The politics of Kazakhstan is still has exceptionally inter-elite nature. Nation haв not become the subject of politics, though emerging of particular acerbated groups like beguiled interest-holders (new build construction financed by the future flat owners), houseless military men, troublemaking borrowers has added some of social variety.

Political opposition is really afraid of the nation. Because of that, it can't use such an ace of spades like populism. By its definition, oppositionists can only promise things which can't be accomplished by the government. But Kazakhstani opposition ignores this opportunity and can't gain heavy popularity in masses.

Informational breakthrough of the opposition to the electorate is difficult from one side by dominant party, which carefully controls TV channels and radio (there's only paper media and Internet left), and the other side is the lack of original and breaking-through ideas, which possibly sting to the quick the electorate. Besides the power, for many years there are the same faces in opposition and that too leads to psychological tiredness and apathy of the people. The State has nothing against national political apathy, because it is easier for it.

The only category of citizens which grows from year to year is absenteists. They are disappointed in both the Power and opposition, and feeling themselves happened in a wrong place on a wrong time. Absenteists never have any ideas, but they are attentively observing the happen. The fact that they can't find anything interesting for themselves on Kazakh political field, speaks of many things.

Kazakhstan is the hybrid country, which has very many oriental features. The East is only considering with the power. The story told by Sergey Duvanov (he can be determined as absenteist) is exhibitive in this connection. On one of the sessions of Politon discussion club he reported about his conversations with the oppositionist female from Honduras. She can't consider the political opponents of Nursultan Nazarbayev as oppositionists. Opposition is the situation, when children sent behind the border, so they can be reached, and forming of combat units. If opposition can't get its followers on the city streets or into the woods, it can't be the opposition. In this view Kazakhstani opposition is as well far from Honduras, as walking to Antarctica.

At one time the opposition hoped for support from the West, but foreign politicians were acting cynically with it. Lobby of transnational companies which extract hydrocarbons from Kazakhstan, was beaten the lobby of democratic institutes. Besides, the policy of Involvement is working. Washington and Brussels are afraid to push back Astana, so it can be put into strong hugs of Moskow and Beijing. That's why they closing their eyes on non-democratic actions of the governments against opposition and independent mass-media.

There isn't many resources on the oppositional field, whereas a lots of ambitious persons. Because of the deficit of resources there is a continuous strong competition between the opposition, squabble and fights are traditional. Only the fear to become weak, forcing the oppositional leaders to calm down the internal conflicts as possible.

Interconnections of different groups within the Power and opposition are important feature in Kazakhstani politics. It may happen that one faction can contain people from both governmental and oppositional camps, and that leads to active rivalry between different personalities within the same body.

The opposition has difficult possibilities to gain more followers. Astana is practically the public officers city, so showed oppositional sympathies is the end of career for any public officer. Almaty, from the other hand, is very differenced and varicolored city. The opposition simply doesn't have enough resources to come over all layers of its citizens, and often has no fresh ideas to be liked. Possibilities of oppositionists are more worsen in provinces, especially in the rural territory. More often they physically can't get to anything farther than district centers, but the main thing is local officials. Law-enforcers and state public authorities there sorted everything toughly, and no oppositionists are allowed. And even if they will arrive, nobody would be happy.

On one hand, the Power has used to existence of opposition, but on the other getting even with it, purely in preventative means. For example, when financial crisis came along, the Power saw those of opposition, who could use it for their own profits. Because of this, there were several cases implemented for them, and also weakened the oppositional mass-media (Taszhargan newspaper was removed from the media field). However, the opposition was so helpless in realization of protest potential, that the government leaved it alone.