President is an ultimate authority

Rauan MALIKOV

Realities of a political life of Kazakhstan shows that businessmen and simple people appeal to the president on all important questions as political and economic life of a policy. Nursultan Nazarbaev is a unique and permanent leader of all epoch of republic independence. He created a political system in which definitive decisions are accepted only by him.

It is possible to argue with deep arguments that authoritarianism is good or bad, however there was developed such political model in Kazakhstan. In this respect the President Nazarbaev does not differ from the colleagues by Central Asia region, but possesses with certain advantages.

Nursultan Nazarbaev has no bloody trace like «Andizhan events» when thousand persons in a rebellious city have been shot by order of Islam Karimov the president of Uzbekistan. Now Mr. Karimov will try to govern to death because the alternative of power loss is only the death penalty.

The positions of the president of Kazakhstan are not weak as Askar Akaev had, the former president of Kyrgyzstan. As a result of «tulip revolution» Mr. Akaev has lost the power, ran from the country and now teaches in high school of Moscow. Kurmanbek Bakiev who seizure of power after Askar Akaev cannot relax for a minute as has the powerful applicants for his post. The president of Kyrgyzstan is rescued only by a lot of contenders, all of them arrogant and is not able to agree with each other.

Astana owner did not begin to create something like a political mode in Turkmenistan for power retention. There Saparmurat Niyazov has realised the worst lines of east despotism, and replaced him Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov does not change the system on principle. The people are deprived of civil rights, education, public health services and social protection extremely degraded. Mr. Nazarbaev retains the power by incomparably smaller social price.

It is incorrect to compare Kazakhstan with Tajikistan which has passed through civil war. The positions of Emmomali Rahmon as head of the state are unsteady enough despite on his retaining the presidential post in comparison with Nursultan Nazarbaev. Rahmon is more depends on external factors, whether it is mutual relations of Russia and the USA or possibilities for export of a labor to the same Russia and Kazakhstan.

Mr. Nazarbaev came to power as the career politician. He passed consistently all stages in political system where party and Soviet bodies have been bound as a fibre of one cord. On April 1991 Supreme body of KazSSR elected him as president of republic, and soon the Soviet Union has collapsed, then yesterday's second floors of the Supreme power of the uniform state became the ground floors in fifteen new independent republics.

The first president of Kazakhstan has many strong political features, acknowledgement to that are the term of stay on the given post. First of all, it is necessary to stop on his patience (ability to build long-term schemes) and abilities to combine with a view of preservation and power retention, and also at game on the international scene, the diversified resources. Riches, versatility and diversity of resources are put in pawn by the specificity of the Post-Soviet Kazakhstan.

Islam Karimov is only from fifteen «big men» who began independent political swimming simultaneously with Nursultan Nazarbaev and is at power top till now. Probably Islam Karimov also wouldn't use machine guns in Andizhan if he would have such rich toolkit. However the history does not bear a subjunctive mood.
Mr. Nazarbaev perfectly knows the device and principles of functioning of state machinery. Maybe he also had failures in fights «under a carpet» and state machinery intrigues till 1991. But everything during independence in strategic measurement is entirely successes. There is probably the factor played that the people and did not become the subject of a policy (it has into elite character till now). Short flashes like opposition in Shanyrak 2006 do not change a situation on principle.

Generally (on politological canons) people involving in a policy get irreversible character when youth joins to process in large quantities (a vivid example — «orange days» in Ukraine). Youth already in many respects is on «platoon», but «descent» has not occurred yet judging by last interethnic conflicts.
Nursultan Nazarbaev coped with the political opponents and contenders rather easily till the middle of 90th. The political field of the country was simple as field for game in draughts. The external moments helped in some things. So after parliament execution in Russia 1993, the Kazakhstan deputies having something similar in view of have handed over the political positions without persistent fight.

However the market, trends and globalization phenomena, privatization (if it is possible so to name an event in Kazakhstan) began to complicate an overall picture. When ex-prime minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin has declared the presidential ambitions in 1998, the struggle was conducted not under laws of draughts but as in chess. The strongest has won, but also Mr. Kazhegeldin could remain on a political scene but territorially his place became abroad (he was enforced to leave the country).

Then there was a 2001 year and the Democratic choice of Kazakhstan when the national bourgeoisie has openly declared the claims for a share in the power. It was not easy campaign on objectionable oligarchs from president side and his command, however here again all at the experienced state functionary has turned out. Opponents have obviously underestimated such moment as a repressive resource. And all power and judicial structures were and remain in exclusive management of the head of the state.

If we return to the thesis about abundance of resources in practice it is shown that when the Kazakh national patriots are necessary they get the money and aether. If there is no requirement they move on periphery of a public life. When signals about excessive pressure among Slavic ethnos have gone Ak Orda does soothing things to their address. There was a requirement in aksakality (authoritative or titled people of advanced age). If it began to bother more youth and technocrats have called on a proscenium. Any imperiously-financial grouping became disproportionate powerful and its actives are withdrawn as «surpluses» in favour of other representatives of a ruling class In general, always are available those people whose installations are directly opposite, so there is a space for modeling.

However to balance and build mechanisms of controls and counterbalances with the centre in the form of itself for Nursultan Nazarbaev all it becomes more difficult. The world inside Kazakhstan and out of it continues to complicate, create new threats and phenomena about which is not known for certain. Chess has already turned in chaturanga (Indian game like chess, but there four players battle everyone against everything and one can become the winner only). However «complete sets of figures» at opponents is not equivalent. Someone does not have enough «elephants», somewhere at once steam of «queens», but there are no «horses», at the third deficiency of «pawns».

Together with the twentieth century have left in the past еру great ideas for which people were ready to give the lives. Everything what in the inventory today are remakes from the past. The world policy became extremely cynical and all is measured only on resources (in any kind) and from positions of national (state) egoism. And here also the international law easily has quickly died only for some years having let the global world on boundless Mr. Nazarbaev well understands all of that and that is way his multiple-vector policy (periodically passing modernization and updating) remains successful.

But the main calls to Nursultan Nazarbaevu as to the head of the state proceeds not from the outside and from within. Economic crisis, growth of social, interethnic and language intensity, latent wars of imperiously-financial groupings, general corruption, criminalization of a society and mass consciousness... And there is one more factor to which has nothing to oppose it is time.

Mr. Nazarbaev can accept the basic decision only and the paradox of situation in that. All other factors of political process only flowers (cactuses) on a road shoulder for today. Anybody does not know what will solve the President concerning the long-term future of the country but all wait for its decision. All others remain disorganized in their own actions without distinctness of forthcoming prospects. Nursultan Nazarbaev should accurately define on the future the logic of historical and political process demands that. He does not do it. Because of it others too do not know for certain how to act. Theoretically such cannot long proceed, but while the given state of affairs remains in force.